当前位置: X-MOL 学术Review of International Economics › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Trade and capital flows: Substitutes or complements? An empirical investigation
Review of International Economics ( IF 1.234 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-25 , DOI: 10.1111/roie.12521
Ansgar Belke 1, 2, 3 , Clemens Domnick 1
Affiliation  

This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international macroeconomics, the empirical evidence has remained relatively scarce so far, in particular for the Euro area where trade and financial imbalance played a prominent role in the build-up of the European sovereign debt crisis. Consequentially, we use a novel dataset, providing estimates for financial flows and its four main categories for 42 countries and covering the period from 2002 to 2012, to test the so-called trade-finance nexus. Since theoretical models stress that both flows might be influencing each other simultaneously, we introduce a novel time-varying instrumental variable based on capital control restrictions to estimate a causal effect. The results of the gravity regressions support theories that underline the complementarity between exports and capital flows. When testing the trade-finance nexus for different types of capital flows, the estimated coefficient is most pronounced for foreign direct investment, in line with theories stressing informational frictions. Robustness checks in the form of different estimation methods, alternative proxies for capital flows and sample splits confirm the positive relationship. Interestingly, the trade-finance nexus does not differ among countries belonging to the EMU, the European Union or among core and peripheral Euro area countries.

中文翻译:

贸易和资本流动:替代品还是互补品?实证调查

本文考察了货物贸易与金融资产之间的联系。两种流量都表现为互补(暗示正相关)还是替代(负相关)?尽管是国际宏观经济学中的经典话题,但迄今为止,经验证据仍然相对稀少,尤其是在贸易和金融失衡在欧洲主权债务危机的积累中发挥突出作用的欧元区。因此,我们使用了一个新的数据集,提供了 42 个国家的资金流量及其四个主要类别的估计值,涵盖了 2002 年至 2012 年期间,以测试所谓的贸易融资关系。由于理论模型强调两种流动可能同时相互影响,我们引入了一个基于资本控制限制的新的时变工具变量来估计因果效应。重力回归的结果支持强调出口和资本流动之间互补性的理论。在测试不同类型资本流动的贸易融资关系时,估计系数对于外国直接投资最为显着,这与强调信息摩擦的理论一致。以不同估计方法、资本流动的替代代理和样本分割形式进行的稳健性检查证实了正相关。有趣的是,在属于 EMU 的国家、欧盟或在欧元区核心和外围国家之间,贸易融资关系没有差异。重力回归的结果支持强调出口和资本流动之间互补性的理论。在测试不同类型资本流动的贸易融资关系时,估计系数对于外国直接投资最为显着,这与强调信息摩擦的理论一致。以不同估计方法、资本流动的替代代理和样本分割形式进行的稳健性检查证实了正相关。有趣的是,在属于 EMU 的国家、欧盟或在欧元区核心和外围国家之间,贸易融资关系没有差异。重力回归的结果支持强调出口和资本流动之间互补性的理论。在测试不同类型资本流动的贸易融资关系时,估计系数对于外国直接投资最为显着,这与强调信息摩擦的理论一致。以不同估计方法、资本流动的替代代理和样本分割形式进行的稳健性检查证实了正相关。有趣的是,在属于 EMU 的国家、欧盟或在欧元区核心和外围国家之间,贸易融资关系没有差异。估计系数对外国直接投资最为显着,符合强调信息摩擦的理论。以不同估计方法、资本流动的替代代理和样本分割形式进行的稳健性检查证实了正相关。有趣的是,在属于 EMU 的国家、欧盟或在欧元区核心和外围国家之间,贸易融资关系没有差异。估计系数对外国直接投资最为显着,符合强调信息摩擦的理论。以不同估计方法、资本流动的替代代理和样本分割形式进行的稳健性检查证实了正相关。有趣的是,在属于 EMU 的国家、欧盟或在欧元区核心和外围国家之间,贸易融资关系没有差异。
更新日期:2021-01-25
down
wechat
bug