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Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague
Journal of Economic Growth ( IF 3.917 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-25 , DOI: 10.1007/s10887-020-09185-4
Fabian Siuda , Uwe Sunde

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that population shocks such as the repeated outbreaks of the plague affected the timing of the demographic transition. The empirical analysis uses disaggregate data from Germany and exploits geographic variation in the exposure to medieval plague shocks. The findings document that areas with greater exposure to plague outbreaks exhibited an earlier onset of the demographic transition. The results are consistent with the predictions of the unified growth literature and provide novel insights into the largely unexplored empirical determinants of the timing of the transition from stagnation to growth.



中文翻译:

疾病与人口发展:瘟疫的遗产

本文对以下假设进行了实证研究:人口冲击,例如鼠疫的反复爆发,影响了人口转变的时机。实证分析使用来自德国的分类数据,并利用暴露于中世纪瘟疫冲击中的地理差异。调查结果表明,受鼠疫暴发影响更大的地区出现了人口转变的较早发作。结果与统一增长文献的预测一致,并为从停滞到增长过渡时间的很大程度上未探索的经验决定因素提供了新颖的见解。

更新日期:2021-01-25
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