This paper explores the properties of dynamic aggregate housing models. In conventional models, in response to demand shocks the primary adjustment mechanism is through prices and changes in housing supply. However, the size of the supply response depends on the price elasticity of supply and in countries such as the UK where the elasticity is low, house prices can rise sharply, worsening affordability. But this ignores the roles of housing risk and credit markets which affect the user cost of capital and the paper demonstrates that models that explicitly introduce a housing risk premium have an additional price stabiliser. The importance is shown through stochastic simulations; these simulations also demonstrate that conventional models used for forecasting and policy analysis may overstate future house price growth.

本文探讨了动态集合房屋模型的属性。在传统模型中，为应对需求冲击，主要的调整机制是通过价格和住房供应的变化。但是，供应响应的大小取决于供应的价格弹性，在诸如英国这样的弹性较低的国家中，房价可能会急剧上涨，从而降低承受能力。但这忽略了住房风险和信贷市场对资本使用者成本产生影响的作用，该论文表明，明确引入住房风险溢价的模型具有额外的价格稳定器。重要性通过随机模拟显示。这些模拟还表明，用于预测和政策分析的常规模型可能会夸大未来的房价增长。