The cost reduction resulting from energy efficiency initiatives may induce behavioural changes, which may undermine the energy savings effort embedded in the initiative (referred to as rebound effects). We develop a novel empirical method for illustrating contributions to the direct rebound for cases where the energy efficiency of the equipment is unobservable. Our focus is on substitution and scale effects in cases where more than one type of equipment may be used to produce the same service. We apply the model on a random sample of 1111 households from the Norwegian Survey of Consumer Expenditure for the year 2009 to identify components of the energy savings and rebound effects of household heat pumps. The results show that the electricity savings are completely offset by the rebound effects due to changes in demand, including changes in the mix of energy goods consumed and increased service production. However, the overall energy efficiency has risen, and total energy consumption is reduced.

能源效率计划带来的成本降低可能​​会导致行为发生变化，这可能会破坏该计划中嵌入的节能工作（称为反弹效应）。我们开发了一种新颖的经验方法来说明在无法观察到设备能效的情况下对直接回弹的贡献。在可能使用一种以上类型的设备来提供相同服务的情况下，我们的重点是替代和规模效应。我们将该模型应用于来自2009年挪威消费者支出调查的1111个家庭的随机样本，以确定家庭热泵的节能和回弹效应的组成部分。结果表明，电力需求的变化完全抵消了节电带来的反弹效应，包括能源消费组合的变化和服务生产的增加。但是，整体能效提高了，总能耗降低了。