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A GHG reduction obligation for sustainableaviation fuels (SAF) in the EU and in Germany
Journal of Air Transport Management ( IF 5.428 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2021.102020
Nils Bullerdiek , Ulf Neuling , Martin Kaltschmitt

Despite various legal drivers already in place, a large-scale use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is still missing. Thus, bringing SAF for GHG reduction reasons into the day-to-day business more effective market injection mechanisms are needed. In this context, direct and indirect effects of a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction obligation in the EU and in Germany are analysed, considering an obligation level of 2% in 2023 increasing stepwise to 10% by 2030 following the goals derived from transport-related RED II targets. For such GHG reduction obligations referred to the entire EU 27 and the entire German aviation fuel uplifts, obligation induced SAF demands possibly exceed future SAF production quantities by a factor of about two without effective capacity expansion exceeding the published expansion plans. The considered SAF options lead to an aviation fuel price increases of 5–45% referring to a conventional aviation fuel price of 550 €/t. Aviation related EU ETS and German aviation tax revenues are mostly insufficient to significantly cover obligation-induced SAF costs or additional fuel costs. Fostering a broad spectrum of SAF technologies will thus require obligation related sub-mechanisms, due to (significantly) different SAF compliance costs. Thereby, sub-mandates represent the most effective approach. In terms of obligation avoidance measures, tankering – in contrast to three re-routing options considered – is likely to be economically feasible for airlines and requires appropriate countermeasures.



中文翻译:

欧盟和德国对可持续航空燃料(SAF)减少温室气体的义务

尽管已有各种法律驱动力,但仍缺少大规模使用可持续航空燃料(SAF)。因此,需要将减少温室气体的SAF纳入日常业务,需要更有效的市场注入机制。在此背景下,分析了欧盟和德国温室气体减排义务的直接和间接影响,考虑到2023年的义务水平将从交通相关目标逐步提高到2030年的10%,到2030年逐步提高到10% RED II目标。对于涉及整个欧盟27国和整个德国航空燃油提升的此类温室气体减排义务,由义务引起的SAF需求可能会超过未来SAF的生产量约两倍,而没有有效的产能扩张超过已公布的扩张计划。考虑到的SAF选项导致航空燃油价格上涨了5–45%,而常规航空燃油价格为550€/ t。与航空相关的欧盟碳交易体系和德国航空税收收入大多不足以充分支付由义务产生的SAF成本或额外的燃料成本。因此,由于(显着)不同的SAF遵从成本,要培养广泛的SAF技术将需要与义务相关的子机制。因此,子授权代表了最有效的方法。在避免义务的措施方面,与考虑的三种改航方案相比,油轮运输对航空公司而言在经济上是可行的,并且需要采取适当的对策。与航空相关的欧盟碳交易体系和德国航空税收收入大多不足以充分支付由义务产生的SAF成本或额外的燃料成本。因此,由于(显着)不同的SAF遵从成本,要培养广泛的SAF技术将需要与义务相关的子机制。因此,子授权代表了最有效的方法。就避免义务的措施而言,与考虑的三种改航方案相比,加油对航空公司而言在经济上是可行的,并且需要采取适当的对策。与航空相关的欧盟碳交易体系和德国航空税收收入大多不足以充分支付由义务产生的SAF成本或额外的燃料成本。因此,由于(显着)不同的SAF遵从成本,要培养广泛的SAF技术将需要与义务相关的子机制。因此,子授权代表了最有效的方法。就避免义务的措施而言,与考虑的三种改航方案相比,加油对航空公司而言在经济上是可行的,并且需要采取适当的对策。子任务是最有效的方法。就避免义务的措施而言,与考虑的三种改航方案相比,加油对航空公司而言在经济上是可行的,并且需要采取适当的对策。子任务是最有效的方法。在避免义务的措施方面,与考虑的三种改航方案相比,油轮运输对航空公司而言在经济上是可行的,并且需要采取适当的对策。

更新日期:2021-01-24
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