Abstract

Does the level of public support for democracy promotion policies vary with the characteristics of potential autocratic targets? We conduct an experimental study with a conjoint design on a sample of 1,464 US citizens that manipulates several core characteristics of potential autocratic targets. We then compare citizens’ preferences with the cross-national evidence testing the determinants of democracy promotion success. We find that respondents support the use of coercive measures (military action and sanctions) precisely in contexts where, according to comparative research, these instruments are unlikely to foster democratization: oil-rich, exclusionary, personalistic regimes with no elections, and with no ties to the United States. Conversely, the characteristics driving public support for the use of democracy aid are more consistent with those favoring effectiveness: autocratic regimes with multi-party elections and with links to the United States. These findings have important policy implications by contributing to understand the micro-foundations of target selection.

中文翻译：

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专制特征对民意对民主促进政策的影响：联合分析

摘要

公众对民主促进政策的支持程度是否随潜在的专制目标的特征而变化？我们对1464名美国公民进行了联合设计的实验研究，该样本操纵了潜在的专制目标的几个核心特征。然后，我们将公民的偏好与测试民主促进成功的决定因素的跨国证据进行比较。我们发现，根据比较研究，受访者支持在某些手段不太可能促进民主化的情况下使用强制措施（军事行动和制裁）：石油丰富，排他，个人主义政权，没有选举，没有联系到美国。反过来，推动公众支持使用民主援助的特征与偏向有效性的特征更加一致：实行多党选举并与美国有联系的专制政权。这些发现通过有助于理解目标选择的微观基础而具有重要的政策含义。