Abstract

Previous research finds that journalist killings are more likely to occur in democracies rather than non-democracies. While these results provide an important first step in exploring regime type’s effect on journalist’s safety, they assume no variation in how long countries have remained a regime type. In this paper, I argue that as a country’s regime type endures, the likelihood of seeing journalists killed for their work will decrease. My theory also examines the process in different regime types and argues that this effect should hold for autocracies and anocracies, but not democracies|though democratic consolidation should decrease journalist killings there. Using an original sample of journalists killed for their professional work in countries worldwide from 1992 to 2014, I evaluate my theory using regression and survival analyses and find evidence that as regime types endure, journalist killings decrease, on average. As expected, the result holds for autocracies and anocracies but not democracies. However, the data show democratic consolidation does decrease journalist killings. The results provide a broader understanding of the working dynamics between regime type and journalists’ safety in a country’s media system.

中文翻译：

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民主国家的新闻安全悖论：政权类型的持续时间和新闻工作者的杀戮

摘要

先前的研究发现，新闻工作者被杀的可能性更大，而不是非民主国家。尽管这些结果为探索政权类型对记者安全的影响迈出了重要的第一步，但他们假设各国保持政权类型的时间没有变化。在本文中，我认为随着国家政权类型的持续存在，看到记者因工作而被杀的可能性将会降低。我的理论还考察了不同政体类型中的过程，并认为这种影响应适用于专制和专制政体，但不适用于民主制，尽管民主巩固应减少那里的新闻工作者被杀。使用1992年至2014年在世界各国因专业工作而被杀的新闻记者的原始样本，我使用回归分析和生存分析对我的理论进行了评估，并发现证据表明，随着政权类型的持续，新闻工作者的杀戮平均减少。不出所料，结果适用于独裁政权和专制政权，但不适用于民主政体。但是，数据显示，民主巩固确实减少了记者的杀戮。结果提供了对国家媒体系统中政权类型与记者安全之间工作动态的更广泛理解。