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Changes in the spatial development of flood hazard areas in Poland between 1990 and 2018 in the light of legal conditions
Land Use Policy ( IF 6.189 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105274
Marta Borowska-Stefańska , Sławomir Kobojek , Michał Kowalski , Marek Lewicki , Przemysław Tomalski , Szymon Wiśniewski

The study presented herein focuses on determining the relationship between changes in the scale of economic losses between 1990–2018 which occurred in areas of high (10 %) and medium (1%) probability of flood occurrence as well as flood hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank, and changes in legislation affecting the spatial development of such areas within the said period. The analysis of changes in the development of flood hazard areas was conducted by means of the Corine Land Cover database. The results of the analysis were later used to evaluate potential economic losses on flood plains, and then spatiotemporal analysis was applied to identify areas with clusters of high and low loss values and the trends regarding their transformations. In consequence, the identification of municipality (Polish: gmina) clusters allowed us to verify the dependence of such transformations on those factors that could impact their intensity. For that purpose, we analysed the coverage of local spatial development plans for individual clusters. On the basis of the conducted studies, we concluded that the implemented legal solutions are not entirely effective, which has also been stated by the legislator. Nevertheless, the introduced legislative changes were beneficial, as the example of Poland shows. The implementation of the Floods Directive has, to a certain degree, decelerated the process of land use and its development in flood hazard areas.



中文翻译:

根据法律条件,1990年至2018年波兰洪灾危险区的空间发展变化

本文介绍的研究重点在于确定在1990-2018年之间发生洪灾的可能性高(10%)和中度(1%)的地区以及由于洪灾造成的洪灾危险区的经济损失规模变化之间的关系。在上述期间内,停止堤坝的破坏,以及影响这些地区空间发展的立法变化。利用科林土地覆盖数据库对洪灾危险区的发展变化进行了分析。分析结果随后用于评估洪泛平原上的潜在经济损失,然后进行时空分析以识别具有高和低损失值簇的区域以及其变化趋势。因此,确定自治市(波兰语:gmina)聚类允许我们验证此类转换对可能影响其强度的那些因素的依赖性。为此,我们分析了单个集群的局部空间发展计划的覆盖范围。在进行的研究的基础上,我们得出的结论是,已实施的法律解决方案并不完全有效,立法者也已指出。然而,如波兰的例子所示,所采取的立法改革是有益的。《洪灾指令》的执行在一定程度上减缓了洪灾地区的土地使用过程及其发展。在进行的研究的基础上,我们得出的结论是,已实施的法律解决方案并不完全有效,立法者也已指出。然而,如波兰的例子所示,所采取的立法改革是有益的。《洪灾指令》的执行在一定程度上减缓了洪灾地区的土地使用过程及其发展。在进行的研究的基础上,我们得出的结论是,已实施的法律解决方案并不完全有效,立法者也已指出。然而,如波兰的例子所示,所采取的立法改革是有益的。《洪灾指令》的执行在一定程度上减缓了洪灾地区的土地使用过程及其发展。

更新日期:2021-01-24
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