In this paper, a Decision Support System (DSS) with digital twinning-based resilience analysis is proposed as a modern tool for port resilience computation and updating. The proposed DSS assesses the resilience of a port under possible disruptive events given its design, operations and potential pre-defined post-event recovery actions to mitigate the impact of the disruption. Digital twinning provides the fidelity required to realistically predict port performance with taken post-event recovery actions under various possible disruptive events. In addition to hedging against impacts from probabilistically known disruption events, this approach also enables inclusion of ordinary operational uncertainties within the resilience evaluation. This is not generally feasible with other existing resilience quantification approaches. To tackle computational challenges of applying a digital twin for real-world size applications, an optimal computing budget allocation policy is adopted to improve computational efficiency. Results of numerical experiments using a real-world size port demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DSS and criticality of accounting for ordinary uncertainties in operations in resilience estimation.

本文提出了一种基于数字孪生的弹性分析的决策支持系统（DSS），作为用于港口弹性计算和更新的现代工具。拟议的DSS考虑到端口的设计，操作和潜在的事后预定义恢复措施，以减轻可能造成的破坏性事件，从而评估端口的恢复能力，以减轻破坏的影响。数字孪生提供了在各种可能的破坏性事件下采取的事后恢复操作，可以切实预测端口性能所需的保真度。除了规避概率已知的中断事件的影响外，这种方法还可以在弹性评估中纳入普通的操作不确定性。使用其他现有的弹性量化方法通常是不可行的。为了解决将数字孪生应用到实际大小的应用程序中的计算难题，采用了最佳计算预算分配策略来提高计算效率。使用实际大小的端口进行数值实验的结果证明了所提出的DSS的有效性以及在弹性估计中考虑到操作中的一般不确定性的重要性。