Criminal career duration has not been well investigated. There are very few longitudinal data sets that last long enough and enough subjects to investigate criminal career duration, and especially the characteristics and risk profiles of especially life course persistent offenders. The aim of the study was to describe the predictability of criminal career duration based on both official records and self‐reports of offending, and to put the results in the context of the Moffitt theory of “adolescent limited” and “life course persistent” offenders. The Pittsburgh Youth Study (n = 1517) is a seminal longitudinal study based on a community sample of high‐risk boys from the city of Pittsburgh. Data was used from the oldest sample of boys in the PYS (N = 506). The participants were first assessed on average at age 12, and data was used up until age 36 for self‐reported offending, and age 40 for police charges. The analyses were conducted on moderate and serious violence and moderate and serious theft. Career duration was based on self‐reports and official charges in combination. The results show the extent to which commonly accepted and well validated risk factors predict criminal career duration with a special focus on individuals showing high rate/persistent offending in adolescence. Results show more pathways of delinquent development than have previously been described by Moffitt, (Psychological Review, 1993, 100(4), 674–701). Results also show that there is limited predictability of delinquency and offending over time. In addition, results show that only a small number of risk factors distinguish high and low rate adolescent offenders who become continuous offenders. Examples are peer factors. Implications for policy making and intervention science are discussed.

中文翻译：

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犯罪职业期限：根据自我报告和正式记录的可预测性

犯罪职业持续时间尚未得到充分调查。几乎没有足够长的纵向数据集可以持续足够长的时间来调查犯罪职业生涯的持续时间，尤其是对生命持续不断的犯罪者的特征和风险状况进行调查。该研究的目的是根据官方记录和犯罪自我报告来描述犯罪职业持续时间的可预测性，并将结果置于“青少年受限”和“终身经历”犯罪者的莫菲特理论的背景下。匹兹堡青年研究（n = 1517）是一项开创性的纵向研究，其依据是匹兹堡市高危男孩的社区样本。数据来自PYS（N= 506）。首先对参与者平均在12岁时进行评估，直到36岁时才使用数据进行自我报告的犯罪，而40岁时则用于警察指控。对中度和严重暴力以及中度和严重盗窃进行了分析。职业生涯的持续时间是根据自我报告和官方收费相结合得出的。结果表明，普遍接受并经过充分验证的风险因素在多大程度上预测了犯罪职业的持续时间，特别侧重于在青少年中表现出高犯罪率/持续犯罪的个人。结果显示，犯罪的发展途径比莫菲特先前描述的要多（Psychological Review，1993，100（4），674-701）。结果还表明，随着时间的推移，犯罪和犯罪的可预测性有限。此外，结果表明，只有极少数的危险因素可以区分成为持续犯罪者的高低犯罪率。例子是同peer因素。讨论了对政策制定和干预科学的意义。