ABSTRACT

Despite there being several estimates for famine-related deaths in the west of The Netherlands during the last stage of World War II, no such information exists for war-related excess mortality among the civilian population from other areas of the country. Previously unavailable data files from Statistics Netherlands allow researchers to estimate the number of war-related excess deaths during the last stage of the war in the whole country. This study uses a seasonal-adjusted mortality model combined with a difference-in-difference approach to estimate the number of excess deaths in the period between January 1944 and July 1945 at a total of close to 91,000 (75%) excess deaths. Almost half of all war-related excess mortality during the last year of the war occurred outside the west.

摘要

尽管有关于第二次世界大战最后阶段荷兰西部与饥荒有关的死亡的一些估计，但尚无有关该国其他地区平民中与战争有关的过度死亡率的信息。荷兰统计局以前无法获得的数据文件使研究人员能够估计整个战争最后阶段在战争期间与战争有关的额外死亡人数。这项研究使用季节性调整后的死亡率模型结合差异差异方法来估算1944年1月至1945年7月之间的超额死亡人数，总计接近91,000（75％）个超额死亡人数。在战争的最后一年中，与战争有关的所有额外死亡率中，几乎有一半发生在西方以外。