The aim of the present study was to predict future changes in biodiversity attributes (richness, rarity, heterogeneity, evenness, functional diversity and taxonomic diversity) of freshwater fish species in river basins around the world, under different climate scenarios. To do this, we use a new methodological approach implemented within the ModestR software (NOO3D) which allows estimating simple species distribution predictions for future climatic scenarios. Data from 16,825 freshwater fish species were used, representing a total of 1,464,232 occurrence records. WorldClim 1.4 variables representing average climate variables for the 1960–1990 period, together with elevation measurements, were used as predictors in these distribution models, as well as in the selection of the most important variables that account for species distribution changes in two scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 6.0). The predictions produced suggest the extinction of almost half of current freshwater fish species in the coming decades, with a pronounced decline in tropical regions and a greater extinction likelihood for species with smaller body size and/or limited geographical ranges.

中文翻译：

---

在全球范围内预测气候变化对未来淡水鱼多样性的影响

本研究的目的是预测不同气候情景下世界河流域淡水鱼物种在生物多样性属性（丰富度，稀有度，异质性，均匀度，功能多样性和分类学多样性）方面的未来变化。为此，我们使用在ModestR软件（NOO3D）中实施的新方法，该方法可为未来的气候情景估计简单的物种分布预测。使用了16,825个淡水鱼类物种的数据，代表了总共1,464,232个发生记录。在这些分布模型中，WorldClim 1.4变量（代表1960-1990年期间的平均气候变量）以及海拔高度测量值用作预测因子，以及在两种情况下（代表浓度途径4.5和6.0）选择最重要的变量来解释物种分布的变化。产生的预测表明，在未来的几十年中，目前将有近一半的淡水鱼类灭绝，热带地区明显减少，而体型较小和/或地理范围有限的物种则有更大的灭绝可能性。