Objective: The present study examines the impact of the COVID-19 stay-at-home order on gun violence in Buffalo, New York: fatal shootings, all non-fatal shootings, non-fatal shootings with injury, and non-fatal shootings without injury. It also estimated its impact on gang and non-gang related shootings. Methods: Weekly crime data are analyzed at the city level using ARIMA and poisson models. Forecasting is used to verify the validity of both ARIMA and poisson models. Results: The effect of the pandemic was conditional upon the types of gun violence and impact models of intervention. The pandemic caused a temporary increase in fatal shootings while leading to a long-term increase in all non-fatal shootings, non-fatal shootings with injury, non-fatal shootings without injury, and gang related shootings. Conclusions: The pandemic has changed the volume of gun violence possibly due to increased strain and/or changed routine activities. This study not only promotes further research but also has policy implications for public health and safety. From a public policy perspective, criminal justice agencies should focus more attention and resources on gun violence resulting from a sense of strain and fear among individuals during the pandemic.

中文翻译：

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当 COVID-19 和枪支相遇时：枪击事件增加

目标：本研究调查了 COVID-19 居家令对纽约州布法罗枪支暴力的影响：致命枪击、所有非致命枪击、受伤的非致命枪击以及没有受伤的非致命枪击受伤。它还估计了它对帮派和非帮派相关枪击事件的影响。方法：使用 ARIMA 和泊松模型在城市层面分析每周犯罪数据。预测用于验证 ARIMA 和泊松模型的有效性。结果：大流行的影响取决于枪支暴力的类型和干预的影响模型。大流行导致致命枪击事件暂时增加，同时导致所有非致命枪击事件、非致命枪击受伤事件、非致命枪击事件和帮派相关枪击事件的长期增加。结论：大流行已经改变了枪支暴力的数量，这可能是由于压力增加和/或改变了日常活动。这项研究不仅促进了进一步的研究，而且对公共健康和安全具有政策意义。从公共政策的角度来看，刑事司法机构应将更多的注意力和资源集中在大流行期间个人因紧张和恐惧感而导致的枪支暴力上。