In this paper we analyse the determinants of Japanese outward FDI stock for the period 1996–2017. This period is especially relevant as it covers a process of increasing economic globalization and two financial crises. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. Our sample includes a total of 27 host countries. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Moreover, we also analyse whether these determinants change depending on the degree of development (emerging vs developed) or the geographical areas (EU vs East Asia) of the countries considered. We find that Japan's FDI can be explained by a wide variety of variables, that include not only the typical gravitational ones but also institutional and macroeconomic variables, including those that measure financial development. Moreover, Japanese FDI can be explained by both horizontal and vertical FDI motives in the groups of countries analysed. However, in developed, and more precisely, EU countries, horizontal FDI strategies are predominant, whereas for East Asian and emerging countries, there is more evidence in favour of vertical FDI.

在本文中，我们分析了1996-2017年日本对外直接投资存量的决定因素。这一时期特别重要，因为它涵盖了日益加剧的经济全球化和两次金融危机的过程。为此，我们根据理论和先前的经验分析，考虑了大量候选变量。我们的样本包括总共27个东道国。我们使用数据驱动的方法（贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）分析）选择协变量。此外，我们还分析了这些决定因素是否根据所考虑国家的发展程度（新兴与发达）或地理区域（欧盟与东亚）而变化。我们发现，日本的外国直接投资可以用各种各样的变量来解释，这些变量不仅包括典型的引力变量，还包括制度和宏观经济变量，包括衡量金融发展的变量。而且，在分析的国家组中，日本的外国直接投资可以用横向和纵向外国直接投资动机来解释。但是，在发达的国家，更确切地说是在欧盟国家，横向FDI策略占主导地位，而对于东亚和新兴国家，有更多的证据支持纵向FDI。