The development of models to elucidate the transmission pathways and dynamics of wildlife diseases remains challenging. Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis (Yp), is an infectious zoonotic disease that primarily affects wild rodents, including prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) in North America. Proposed transmission pathways for Yp include flea bites, direct contacts between hosts, and environmental reservoirs (e.g. soil, carcasses). We developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model of Yp transmission to explore the effects of alternative transmission pathways, different disease initiation mechanisms (host or fleas), parameter uncertainty, and spatial structure of hosts. A particularly novel aspect of our model was the integration of ecological models with traditional disease models. Specifically, we used estimates from spatial capture-recapture models to generate data-driven spatial distributions, densities, and contact rates to capture the spatial structure of prairie dogs. We simulated ~9 million scenarios across a wide range of parameter values and conducted sensitivity analyses to determine the most influential parameters on the number of flea-days (sum of the mean number of fleas on hosts each day of the simulation), number of newly infected hosts per day, the time to depopulation (<20 prairie dogs remaining), and the proportion of the prairie dog population remaining at the end of the simulation (after 150 days). When including spatial structure, we found the probability of transmission via environmental sources of Yp (i.e. carcasses) had the greatest influence on model results when Yp infection was initiated in prairie dog hosts, rather than in fleas. Conversely, the mechanism of transmission by fleas to prairie dogs had the greatest influence on model results when Yp infection was initiated in fleas (i.e. via introduction by carnivores, a migrant prairie dog, or other mammalian host). Uncertainty in parameter estimates, particularly those related to the transmission pathways of Yp, continue to hamper efforts to realistically model plague dynamics in wild rodents. Our results elucidate the complexity of the flea-plague-prairie dog system and reiterate the importance of research on Yp transmission mechanisms to provide a full understanding of this disease. Our results also emphasize the importance of realistic estimates of spatial structure for exploring transmission dynamics of wildlife diseases and provide a framework for generating a data-driven description of spatial structure.

阐明野生动物疾病的传播途径和动态的模型的开发仍然具有挑战性。Sylvatic瘟疫，造成细菌鼠疫耶尔森氏菌（YP），是一种传染性人畜共患病的主要影响野生啮齿动物，包括土拨鼠（Cynomys属）在北美。Yp的拟议传播途径包括跳蚤叮咬，宿主之间的直接接触以及环境储层（例如土壤，尸体）。我们开发了基于空间的基于代理的Yp模型传播以探讨替代传播途径，不同疾病引发机制（寄主或跳蚤），参数不确定性和寄主空间结构的影响。我们模型的一个特别新颖的方面是生态模型与传统疾病模型的整合。具体来说，我们使用来自空间捕获-捕获模型的估计值来生成数据驱动的空间分布，密度和接触率，以捕获草原土拨鼠的空间结构。我们在广泛的参数值上模拟了约900万个场景，并进行了敏感性分析，以确定对跳蚤天数（模拟的每一天主机平均跳蚤总数的总和），最新数量的影响最大的参数。每天感染宿主的时间，人口减少的时间（剩余的<20只草原土拨鼠），以及模拟结束时（150天后）剩余的草原土拨鼠数量比例。当包括空间结构时，我们发现通过环境源传播的可能性当在草原犬只宿主而非跳蚤中引发Yp感染时，Yp（即car体）对模型结果的影响最大。相反，传输通过跳蚤土拨鼠机制对模型结果的影响最大，当YP感染跳蚤已启动（即通过由食肉动物介绍，农民草原狗或其它哺乳动物宿主）。参数估计的不确定性，尤其是那些与Yp传播途径有关的估计，仍在阻碍实际模拟野生啮齿动物鼠疫动态的努力。我们的研究结果阐明了跳蚤-瘟疫-公犬系统的复杂性，并重申了对Yp研究的重要性传播机制可提供对该疾病的全面了解。我们的研究结果还强调了对空间结构进行现实估计的重要性，以探索野生动物疾病的传播动力学，并为生成数据驱动的空间结构描述提供了框架。