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Identifying the 50 statistically-most-concerning derelict objects in LEO
Acta Astronautica ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2021.01.021
Darren McKnight , Rachel Witner , Francesca Letizia , Stijn Lemmens , Luciano Anselmo , Carmen Pardini , Alessandro Rossi , Chris Kunstadter , Satomi Kawamoto , Vladimir Aslanov , Juan-Carlos Dolado Perez , Vincent Ruch , Hugh Lewis , Mike Nicolls , Liu Jing , Shen Dan , Wang Dongfang , Andrey Baranov , Dmitriy Grishko

This paper describes a process for identifying the intact objects in orbit that (a) pose the greatest debris-generating potential risk to operational satellites or (b) would reduce the risk the most if they were removed or prevented from colliding with each other (i.e., remediated). To accomplish this, a number of diverse, international space organizations were solicited to contribute their lists of the 50 statistically-most-concerning objects. The results of the multiple algorithms are compared, a composite ranked list is provided, and the significance of the consolidated list is presented including critical assumptions and key factors in determining this “hit list.” It is found that the four primary factors used in these processes are mass, encounter rates, orbital lifetime, and proximity to operational satellites. This cooperative international assessment provides a useful ranking of the most hazardous massive derelicts in low Earth orbit as a prioritized list for remediation to (1) enhance space safety and (2) assure long-term space sustainability. This will hopefully catalyze international action in debris remediation.



中文翻译:

识别LEO中50个统计上最相关的废弃对象

本文介绍了一种识别轨道上完整物体的过程,该过程(a)对运行中的卫星构成最大的碎片产生潜在风险,或者(b)如果将它们移走或防止相互碰撞,则可以最大程度地降低风险(即,已修复)。为了实现这一目标,我们邀请了许多不同的国际空间组织来提供其在50个统计上最相关的物体的清单。比较了多种算法的结果,提供了综合排名列表,并提出了合并列表的重要性,包括确定此“命中列表”的关键假设和关键因素。发现在这些过程中使用的四个主要因素是质量,相遇率,轨道寿命以及与可运行卫星的接近程度。这项合作性国际评估提供了对低地球轨道中最危险的大规模遗弃物的有用排名,可以作为补救的优先清单,以(1)增强太空安全和(2)确保长期太空可持续性。希望这将促使国际社会采取行动来治理碎片。

更新日期:2021-01-29
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