Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, was declared a pandemic by the WHO on March 12, 2020. By April 10, 2020, it has spread to almost 215 UN Territories, affected more than 1,600,000 people, and become fatal to more than 100,000 people. We propose a compartmental model to investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and analyze the effects of governments and health officials’ intervention strategies, using data in the USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, and France. These are the countries with the most confirmed cases of the COVID-19 as of April 11, 2020. We perform parameter estimations, sensitivity, and predictive analysis and compare the COVID-19 trend in these understudy countries. Based on the model, we compute the basic reproduction number of the pandemic in these countries. The results indicate that the most sensitive parameters are the contact rate and degree of intervention; these parameters have high value in containing the pandemic. The basic reproduction number in each of the countries under study is more than unity. Based on our findings, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to spread; but higher compliance with the intervention strategies will help minimize the disease’s spread.

中文翻译：

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调查 COVID-19 大流行动态的分区模型：五个国家的案例研究

由严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 感染引起的 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 于 2020 年 3 月 12 日被世界卫生组织宣布为大流行病。到 2020 年 4 月 10 日，它已蔓延到几乎215 个联合国领土，影响超过 1,600,000 人，并造成超过 100,000 人死亡。我们使用美国、意大利、西班牙、德国和法国的数据提出了一个隔间模型来调查 COVID-19 大流行的动态，并分析政府和卫生官员干预策略的影响。这些是截至 2020 年 4 月 11 日 COVID-19 确诊病例最多的国家。我们进行参数估计、敏感性和预测分析，并比较这些研究国家的 COVID-19 趋势。基于模型，我们计算了这些国家流行病的基本繁殖数。结果表明，最敏感的参数是接触率和干预程度；这些参数在遏制大流行方面具有很高的价值。所研究的每个国家的基本繁殖数都不止一个。根据我们的调查结果，COVID-19 大流行将继续蔓延；但对干预策略的更高依从性将有助于最大限度地减少疾病的传播。