In this paper, we examine the relationship between temperature and human conception rates and project the impacts of climate change by the mid-twenty-first century. Using complete administrative data on 6.8 million pregnancies between 1980 and 2015 in Hungary, we show that exposure to hot temperatures reduces the conception rate in the first few weeks following exposure, but a partial rebound is observed after that. We project that with absent adaptation, climate change will increase seasonal differences in conception rates and annual conception rates will decline. A change in the number of induced abortions and spontaneous fetal losses drives the decline in conception rates. The number of live births is unaffected. However, some newborns will experience a shift in the timing of conception that leads to changes in in utero temperature exposure and therefore might have further consequences.

在本文中，我们研究了温度与人类受孕率之间的关系，并预测了到二十一世纪中叶气候变化的影响。使用1980年至2015年间匈牙利的680万例妊娠的完整行政数据，我们发现暴露于高温会降低暴露后头几周的受孕率，但此后会出现部分反弹。我们预计，如果缺乏适应，气候变化将使受孕率的季节差异增加，而年度受孕率将下降。人工流产和自然流产的数量变化导致受孕率下降。活产数量不受影响。然而，