Recent assessments of future risk to atoll habitability have focused on island erosion and submergence, and have overlooked the effects of other climate‐related drivers, as well as differences between ocean basins and island types. Here we investigate the cumulative risk arising from multiple drivers (sea‐level rise; changes in rainfall, ocean–atmosphere oscillations and tropical cyclone intensity; ocean warming and acidification) to five Habitability Pillars: Land, Freshwater supply, Food supply, Settlements and infrastructure, and Economic activities. Risk is assessed for urban and rural islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, in 2050 and 2090, and considering a moderate adaptation scenario. Risks will be highest in the Western Pacific which will experience increased island destabilization together with a high threat to freshwater, and decreased land‐based and marine food supply from reef‐dependent fish and tuna and tuna‐like resources. Risk accumulation will occur at a lower rate in the Central Pacific (lower pressure on land, with more limited cascading effects on other Habitability Pillars; increase in pelagic fish stocks) and the Central Indian Ocean (mostly experiencing increased land destabilization and reef degradation). Risk levels will vary significantly between urban islands, depending on geomorphology and local shoreline disturbances. Rural islands will experience less contrasting risk levels, but higher risks than urban islands in the second half of the century.

中文翻译：

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气候驱动的环境变化对未来环礁宜居性的风险

最近对环礁宜居性未来风险的评估主要集中在岛屿的侵蚀和淹没，而忽视了其他与气候相关的驱动因素的影响，以及海洋盆地和岛屿类型之间的差异。在这里，我们调查了由五个驱动因素引起的累积风险（海平面上升；降雨，海洋-大气振荡和热带气旋强度变化；海洋变暖和酸化）对五个可居住性支柱的影响：土地，淡水供应，粮食供应，定居点和基础设施，以及经济活动。根据RCP2.6和RCP8.5，并考虑适度的适应情景，根据RCP2.6和RCP8.5评估了太平洋和印度洋城市和乡村岛屿的风险。西太平洋地区的风险最高，岛国动荡加剧，对淡水的威胁更大，依赖礁石的鱼类，金枪鱼和金枪鱼和类似金枪鱼的陆地和海洋食物供应减少。中太平洋地区（土地压力较低，对其他可居住性支柱的级联作用有限；中上层鱼类种群增加）和中印度洋（主要是土地不稳定和礁石退化加剧）的风险积累将以较低的速度发生。根据地貌和当地海岸线扰动，城市岛屿之间的风险水平将有很大差异。在本世纪下半叶，农村岛屿的风险水平将降低，但风险要高于城市岛屿。以及依赖礁石的鱼类，金枪鱼和类似金枪鱼的资源的陆上和海洋食物供应减少。中太平洋地区（土地压力降低，对其他可居住性支柱的级联效应有限；中上层鱼类种群增加）和中印度洋（主要经历着土地不稳定和礁石退化加剧）的风险积累将以较低的速度发生。根据地貌和当地海岸线扰动，城市岛屿之间的风险水平将有很大差异。在本世纪下半叶，农村岛屿的风险水平将降低，但风险要高于城市岛屿。以及依赖礁石的鱼类，金枪鱼和类似金枪鱼的资源的陆上和海洋食物供应减少。中太平洋地区（土地压力降低，对其他可居住性支柱的级联效应有限；中上层鱼类种群增加）和中印度洋（主要经历着土地不稳定和礁石退化加剧）的风险积累将以较低的速度发生。根据地貌和当地海岸线扰动，城市岛屿之间的风险水平将有很大差异。在本世纪下半叶，农村岛屿的风险水平将降低，但风险要高于城市岛屿。对其他可居住性支柱的级联影响更为有限；中上层鱼类种群增加）和中印度洋（主要是土地不稳定和礁石退化加剧）。根据地貌和当地海岸线扰动，城市岛屿之间的风险水平将有很大差异。在本世纪下半叶，农村岛屿的风险水平将降低，但风险要高于城市岛屿。对其他可居住性支柱的级联影响更为有限；中上层鱼类种群增加）和中印度洋（主要是土地不稳定和礁石退化加剧）。根据地貌和当地海岸线扰动，城市岛屿之间的风险水平将有很大差异。在本世纪下半叶，乡村岛屿的风险水平将降低，但风险要高于城市岛屿。