Iran is the world’s fourth largest holder of oil reserves, and the costs of producing Iranian oil are relatively low. The dynamics of oil production has a pronounced cyclical character, and these cycles are set by political factors exogenous for the oil sector. The peak was reached in 1974, and since then Iran’s share in world oil production has declined. The authors show that, in a series of powerful exogenous shocks, unilateral and multilateral sanctions have had a strong negative impact on the dynamics of Iranian oil production. The long-term negative effects of the sanctions significantly outweigh the short-term ones. Crucially, owing to the sanctions, the technological level of the Iranian oil sector remains extremely low. Global energy companies and banks refuse to cooperate with Iranian counterparties because the expanding practice of extraterritorial application of US sanctions has turned Iranian hydrocarbons into a “toxic asset.” The countries of the Asia‒Pacific region that continue to import Iranian oil under the sanctions have become able to establish favorable terms of contracts. Iranian oil is purchased at a price discount for restricted and/or nonconvertible currencies, often in exchange for counterbarter deliveries of goods. With the accelerating race to monetize hydrocarbon reserves and the approaching global peak in oil demand, it is more likely that a significant portion of commercially competitive Iranian oil will remain in the ground.

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伊朗在全球石油市场

伊朗是世界第四大石油储量持有国，生产伊朗石油的成本相对较低。石油生产的动态具有明显的周期性特征，这些周期是由石油行业的外生政治因素决定的。1974 年达到顶峰，此后伊朗在世界石油产量中的份额有所下降。作者表明，在一系列强大的外生冲击中，单边和多边制裁对伊朗石油生产的动态产生了强烈的负面影响。制裁的长期负面影响明显大于短期负面影响。至关重要的是，由于制裁，伊朗石油部门的技术水平仍然极低。全球能源公司和银行拒绝与伊朗对手合作，因为美国制裁的域外适用范围的扩大已将伊朗的碳氢化合物变成了“有毒资产”。在制裁下继续进口伊朗石油的亚太地区国家已经能够建立有利的合同条件。伊朗石油是以受限货币和/或不可兑换货币的价格折扣购买的，通常是为了换取货物的还价交付。随着碳氢化合物储备货币化的加速竞争以及全球石油需求接近顶峰，很可能很大一部分具有商业竞争力的伊朗石油将留在地下。” 在制裁下继续进口伊朗石油的亚太地区国家已经能够建立有利的合同条款。伊朗石油是以受限货币和/或不可兑换货币的价格折扣购买的，通常是为了换取货物的还价交付。随着碳氢化合物储备货币化的加速竞争以及全球石油需求接近顶峰，很可能很大一部分具有商业竞争力的伊朗石油将留在地下。” 在制裁下继续进口伊朗石油的亚太地区国家已经能够建立有利的合同条款。伊朗石油是以受限货币和/或不可兑换货币的价格折扣购买的，通常是为了换取货物的还价交付。随着碳氢化合物储备货币化的加速竞争以及全球石油需求接近顶峰，很可能很大一部分具有商业竞争力的伊朗石油将留在地下。