ABSTRACT

Predicting future water demands of societies is a major challenge because it involves a holistic understanding of possible changes within socio-hydrological systems. Although recent research has made efforts to translate social dimensions into the analysis of hydrological systems, few studies have involved citizen participation in water footprint analysis. This paper integrates time series with citizens’ perceptions, knowledge and beliefs concerning sanitation elements to account for municipal blue and grey water footprints in São Carlos, Brazil, from 2009 to 2016, and potential water footprints in 2030 and 2050. In this case study, grey footprint potentially exceeds the blue water footprint by up to 35 times, and volunteered information suggested a reduction in water consumption, larger garbage production and greater investment in sanitation infrastructure from authorities. We conclude that public knowledge can be used to delineate possible water footprint scenarios and reveal paradoxes in the coevolution of socio-hydrological systems on an urban scale.

摘要

预测社会未来的用水需求是一项重大挑战，因为它需要全面了解社会水文学系统内的可能变化。尽管最近的研究已努力将社会层面转化为水文系统分析，但很少有研究涉及公民参与水足迹分析。本文将时间序列与公民对环卫要素的看法，知识和信仰相结合，以说明2009年至2016年巴西圣卡洛斯的市政蓝色和灰色水足迹以及2030和2050年的潜在水足迹。在本案例研究中，灰色足迹可能会超过蓝色足迹多达35倍，而且自愿提供的信息表明可以减少用水量，当局增加了垃圾产量，并加大了对卫生基础设施的投资。我们得出的结论是，公共知识可用于描述可能的水足迹场景，并揭示城市规模社会水文学系统共同演进中的悖论。