This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the environmental and economic impacts of climate change on global and regional forests from now through 2200. By integrating the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios with climate models, a vegetation model, socio-economic scenarios, and a forest economic model, the study explores long run adjustments of both ecosystems and markets to climate change that have not been studied before. The ecological model suggests that global forest productivity increases under RCP 8.5. The overall supply of timber expands faster than demand through the 23rd century lowering timber prices and creating net benefits in the timber sector. Consumers benefit the most from the lower prices but these same low prices tend to damage forest owners, especially in the tropics. Even without a formal sequestration policy, average global forest carbon is projected to increase by 6%–8% by 2100. Under the RCP 2.6, forest carbon remains stable through 2200 but under RCP 8.5 it is simulated to increase by another 8% with a very heterogeneous distribution across world regions. Under both RCPs, global forest area is projected to increase relative to a no-climate change case until 2150, but possibly decline thereafter.

这项研究提供了从现在到2200年气候变化对全球和区域森林的环境和经济影响的综合评估。通过将代表性浓度路径（RCP）2.6和RCP 8.5排放情景与气候模型，植被模型，经济情景和森林经济模型，该研究探索了以前从未研究过的针对气候变化的生态系统和市场的长期调整。生态模型表明，在RCP 8.5下，全球森林生产力得以提高。到23世纪，木材的整体供应增长快于需求增长，这降低了木材价格并在木材部门创造了净收益。消费者从较低的价格中受益最大，但这些较低的价格往往会损害森林所有者，尤其是在热带地区。即使没有正式的封存政策，到2100年，全球平均森林碳预计也将增加6％–8％。在RCP 2.6下，森林碳在2200年之前保持稳定，但在RCP 8.5下，模拟为再增加8％。世界各地的分布非常不同。在这两个RCP下，相对于无气候变化的情况，预计全球森林面积将增加，直到2150年，但此后可能会减少。