ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the macroeconomic consequences of a fiscal policy implemented in South Korea during COVID-19, ‘Korean Economic Impact Payment (KEIP)’ program, that aims to stimulate offline consumption. In doing so, we modify a SIR-macro model by explicitly distinguishing online- and offline consumption goods. Benchmark analysis predicts that (1) there are positive effects on key macro variables at the impact while progress of the epidemic hardly changes and (2) the transfer multiplier from the KEIP is estimated to be about 0.5 at the impact, a value with what we expect from the usual neo-classical business cycle model.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19期间刺激线下消费的宏观经济后果

摘要

本文分析了在COVID-19期间在韩国实施的一项财政政策的宏观经济后果，即旨在刺激线下消费的“韩国经济影响付款（KEIP）”计划。为此，我们通过明确区分在线和离线消费商品来修改SIR宏模型。基准分析预测（1）流行病的进展几乎没有变化，但对关键宏变量产生了积极影响；（2）KEIP的传递乘数估计为约0.5，与我们从通常的新古典商业周期模型中期望。