This study examines the effects of oil supply and global demand shocks on the volatility of commodity prices in the metal and agricultural commodity markets using the SVAR model. The empirical evidence is based on real time daily closing international commodity prices covering the period 2 December 2019 to 1 October 2020. The findings are presented in cumulative impulse responses and variance decompositions. The former is utilized to examine the accumulated influence of structural shocks on the volatility of agricultural and metal commodities whereas the latter reflect the share of variation in the volatility of each commodity arising from each structural shock. Various patterns are provided on how metal and agricultural commodity prices have been influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy implications are discussed.

这项研究使用SVAR模型研究了石油供应和全球需求冲击对金属和农产品市场中商品价格波动的影响。经验证据基于涵盖2019年12月2日至2020年10月1日的国际日实时收盘价。调查结果以累积冲激响应和方差分解的形式呈现。前者用来检验结构冲击对农业和金属商品波动性的累积影响，而后者则反映每种结构冲击所引起的每种商品波动性变化的份额。关于COVID-19大流行如何影响金属和农产品价格提供了各种模式。讨论了政策含义。