Climate change effects on agricultural yields will be uneven over the world. A few countries, mostly in high latitudes, may experience gains, while most will see average yield decrease. This paper aims to quantify the role of market-mediated adjustments in attenuating the effects of climate change by allowing the expression of the new climate-induced pattern of comparative advantages within and between countries. To do this, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium trade model where the representation of land use choice is inspired from modern Ricardian trade models. We use spatially explicit information from the agronomic literature about potential yields before and after climate change for calibration and counterfactual simulations. The results show that the climate-induced yield changes generate large price movements that incentivize adjustments in production and trade. Both production and trade adjustments contribute to reducing welfare losses globally, with production adjustments making the larger contribution.

气候变化对农业产量的影响在世界范围内是不均衡的。一些国家（大多数位于高纬度地区）可能会有所收获，而大多数国家的平均单产将会下降。本文旨在量化市场介导的调整在减轻气候变化影响方面的作用，方法是允许表达国家内部和国家之间新的由气候引起的比较优势模式。为此，我们开发了一种定量的一般均衡贸易模型，其中土地使用选择的表示法受到现代里卡德贸易模型的启发。我们使用农艺文献中关于气候变化前后潜在产量的空间明确信息进行校准和反事实模拟。结果表明，气候导致的产量变化产生了巨大的价格变动，从而刺激了生产和贸易的调整。生产和贸易调整都有助于减少全球福利损失，其中生产调整的贡献更大。