We analyze the determination of the optimal intensity and duration of social distancing policy aiming to control the spread of an infectious disease in a simple macroeconomic–epidemiological model. In our setting the social planner wishes to minimize the social costs associated with the levels of disease prevalence and output lost due to social distancing, both during and at the end of epidemic management program. Indeed, by limiting individuals’ ability to freely move or interact with others (since requiring to wear face mask or to maintain physical distance from others, or even forcing some businesses to remain closed), social distancing has on the one hand the effect to reduce the disease incidence and on the other hand to reduce the economy’s productive capacity. We analyze both the early and the advanced epidemic stage intervention strategies highlighting their implications for short and long run health and macroeconomic outcomes. We show that both the intensity and the duration of the optimal social distancing policy may largely vary according to the epidemiological characteristics of specific diseases, and that the balancing of the health benefits and economic costs associated with social distancing may require to accept the disease to reach an endemic state. Focusing in particular on COVID-19 we present a calibration based on Italian data showing how the optimal social distancing policy may vary if implemented at national or at regional level.

我们在一个简单的宏观经济-流行病学模型中分析了旨在控制传染病传播的社会疏远政策的最佳强度和持续时间的确定。在我们的环境中，社会计划者希望在流行病管理计划期间和结束时将与疾病流行水平和因社会疏远造成的产出损失相关的社会成本降至最低。事实上，通过限制个人自由移动或与他人互动的能力（因为要求戴口罩或与他人保持身体距离，甚至迫使一些企业保持关闭），社交距离一方面会减少疾病的发病率，另一方面会降低经济的生产能力。我们分析了早期和晚期流行病阶段的干预策略，强调了它们对短期和长期健康和宏观经济结果的影响。我们表明，最佳社会疏远政策的强度和持续时间可能会根据特定疾病的流行病学特征而有很大差异，并且与社会疏远相关的健康效益和经济成本之间的平衡可能需要接受疾病才能达到一个流行的状态。我们特别关注 COVID-19，我们根据意大利数据进行校准，显示如果在国家或地区层面实施最佳社会疏离政策可能会如何变化。我们表明，最佳社会疏远政策的强度和持续时间可能会根据特定疾病的流行病学特征而有很大差异，并且与社会疏远相关的健康效益和经济成本之间的平衡可能需要接受疾病才能达到一个流行的状态。我们特别关注 COVID-19，我们根据意大利数据进行校准，显示如果在国家或地区层面实施最佳社会疏离政策可能会如何变化。我们表明，最佳社会疏远政策的强度和持续时间可能会根据特定疾病的流行病学特征而有很大差异，并且与社会疏远相关的健康效益和经济成本之间的平衡可能需要接受疾病才能达到一个流行的状态。我们特别关注 COVID-19，我们根据意大利数据进行校准，显示如果在国家或地区层面实施最佳社会疏离政策可能会如何变化。