With high economic and nutritional value, soybean is an important crop with increasing global demand. In order to explore the current global potential cultivation areas of soybean and its future dynamics (in 2030s, 2050s and 2070s) in response to future climate changes, a MaxEnt model was established. Based on fraction values of soybean-harvested area (FSHA) as the currently known soybean distribution, and climate and soil conditions as the predictors, predictions with a resolution of 5 arcmin (approx. 10 × 10 km) were made by our model. The modeling results indicated that most of the current global soybean distributed in areas with medium to high land suitability for soybean cultivation, and there were still potential undeveloped suitable areas around the world. Under future climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of multiple global circulation models (IPSL-CM5A-LR, BCC-CSM 1.1 and MIROC-ESM-CHEM), significant increase in suitability was expected to occur in broad areas of the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Areas of central and eastern Europe, southern Russia and southeastern Canada were expected to get a medium suitability in the long term. Both the area with increasing and decreasing land suitability were predicted to increase with time, but the latter was greater and RCP 8.5 gave the worst prediction. Large areas of low latitudes were expected to become unsuitable under future climate change scenarios. Our study indicated that the risk of global soybean cultivation may be higher in the future.

大豆具有很高的经济和营养价值，是全球需求增长的重要作物。为了探索当前全球潜在的大豆种植区及其响应未来气候变化的未来动态（在2030、2050和2070年代），建立了MaxEnt模型。基于当前已知的大豆分布的大豆收割面积（FSHA）的分数值，以及作为预测因素的气候和土壤条件，我们的模型做出的分辨率为5 arcmin（约10×10 km）。建模结果表明，当前全球大多数大豆分布在中等至高度适合种植大豆的土地上，而世界范围内仍存在未开发的潜在适宜区域。在未来的气候变化情景下（RCP 2.6，RCP 4.5和RCP 8）。5）在多种全球环流模型（IPSL-CM5A-LR，BCC-CSM 1.1和MIROC-ESM-CHEM）中，预计在北半球中高纬度的广大地区将发生适应性显着增加。从长远来看，预计中欧和东欧，俄罗斯南部和加拿大东南部地区将具有中等适用性。土地适应性增加和减少的区域都预计会随时间增加，但后者会更大，RCP 8.5给出的预测最差。预计在未来的气候变化情景下，大片低纬度地区将变得不合适。我们的研究表明，未来全球大豆种植的风险可能更高。预计在北半球中高纬度的广大地区会出现适宜性的显着提高。从长远来看，预计中欧和东欧，俄罗斯南部和加拿大东南部地区将具有中等适用性。土地适应性增加和减少的区域都预计会随时间增加，但后者会更大，RCP 8.5给出的预测最差。预计在未来的气候变化情景下，大范围的低纬度地区将变得不合适。我们的研究表明，未来全球大豆种植的风险可能更高。预计在北半球中高纬度的广大地区将发生适宜性的显着提高。从长远来看，预计中欧和东欧，俄罗斯南部和加拿大东南部地区将具有中等适用性。土地适应性增加和减少的区域都预计会随时间增加，但后者会更大，RCP 8.5给出的预测最差。预计在未来的气候变化情景下，大片低纬度地区将变得不合适。我们的研究表明，未来全球大豆种植的风险可能更高。土地适应性增加和减少的区域都预计会随时间增加，但后者会更大，RCP 8.5给出的预测最差。预计在未来的气候变化情景下，大范围的低纬度地区将变得不合适。我们的研究表明，未来全球大豆种植的风险可能更高。土地适应性增加和减少的区域都预计会随时间增加，但后者会更大，RCP 8.5给出的预测最差。预计在未来的气候变化情景下，大片低纬度地区将变得不合适。我们的研究表明，未来全球大豆种植的风险可能更高。