This paper presents an analysis of the path towards a clean energy transition in rural areas, from the time that households do not have electricity access from any source, to when they get access to the national electricity; considering the intermediate access to an off-grid renewable technology, as well as the post-electrification years. For this, field household-level data are collected through surveys and electricity consumption measurements in rural Kenya. Potential electricity access transitions were analyzed, in which the determinants of grid-electricity and solar home system (SHS) adoption were identified, finding that factors such as peer-pressure, good quality housing materials, and a male as household head will increase the probabilities to up to 45% for grid-electricity adoption. Increasing the electricity price and the unreliability of the electricity service will have a negative effect on these probabilities, reducing them at rates from 5 to 22%. Households that had access to a SHS before getting grid-electricity connection are likely to consume 9 kWh/month (equivalent to 142KSh/month) more than those that did not have access to it. Results also show that women as decision-makers have a key role in the energy transition, as female-headed households are keener to move to cleaner fuels at an early stage. The post-electrification consumption peak is likely to occur until the third year of connection, as households acquire more power-consuming appliances; however, this is greatly affected by the electricity grid unreliability. These findings intend to fill in the knowledge gap on understanding each step of the energy ladder in rural areas, which can potentially support the design of energy access interventions and policy strategies.

本文对农村地区向清洁能源过渡的路径进行了分析，从家庭没有任何来源的电力供应到他们获得国家电力的时间；考虑使用离网可再生技术的中间途径以及后电气化的年份。为此，通过调查和肯尼亚农村地区的用电量测量收集了家庭住户一级的数据。分析了潜在的用电过渡，确定了采用电网和太阳能家用系统（SHS）的决定因素，发现同等压力，优质住房材料和以男性为户主的因素将增加概率电网使用率最高可达45％。电价上涨和电力服务的不可靠性将对这些概率产生负面影响，将其概率从5％降低至22％。在没有并网连接之前已经获得SHS的家庭可能比没有电力的家庭多消耗9 kWh /月（相当于142KSh /月）。结果还表明，妇女作为决策者在能源转型中起着关键作用，因为以女性为户主的家庭渴望在早期阶段转向使用更清洁的燃料。电气化后的消费高峰可能会持续到连接的第三年，因为家庭购买了更多的用电设备。但是，这很大程度上受到电网可靠性的影响。