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COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110697
Ayan Paul 1 , Selim Reja 1 , Sayani Kundu 2 , Sabyasachi Bhattacharya 1
Affiliation  

We have put an effort to estimate the number of publications related to the modelling aspect of the corona pandemic through the web search with the corona associated keywords. The survey reveals that plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution. Most of the future predictions based on these epidemiological models are highly unreliable because of the complexity of the dynamical equations and the poor knowledge of realistic values of the model parameters. The incidence time series of top ten corona infected countries are erratic and sparse. But in comparison, the incidence and disease fitness relationships are uniform and concave upward in nature. These simple profiles with the acceleration curves have fundamental implications in understanding the instinctive dynamics of the corona pandemic. We propose a simple population dynamics solution based on the incidence-fitness relationship in predicting that a plateau or steady state of SARS-CoV-2 will be reached using the basic concept of geometry.



中文翻译:

重新审视 COVID-19 大流行模型并提出新建议:大量流行病学模型抛弃了简单的人口动力学解决方案

我们已经通过使用与电晕相关的关键字进行网络搜索,努力估算与电晕大流行建模方面相关的出版物数量。调查显示,许多流行病学模型都抛弃了简单的人口动力学解决方案。由于动力学方程的复杂性和对模型参数实际值的了解不足,基于这些流行病学模型的大多数未来预测都非常不可靠。前十名电晕感染国家的发病率时间序列不稳定且稀疏。但相比较而言,发病率与疾病适应度关系是均匀的、上凹的。这些带有加速曲线的简单概况对于理解新冠大流行的本能动力学具有根本意义。

更新日期:2021-01-24
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