In order to ensure the safe operation of parallel routes in the ocean area, it is necessary to assess the risk of lateral collision of routes. The data used in the assessment often come from the real flights, while the traditional land-based ADS-B equipment has limited coverage and cannot be used for research. The space-based ADS-B system can receive and send the flight position of the aircraft over the ocean area. In this paper, the ocean tracks in space-based ADS-B data are first extracted. According to the different route structures, the data of fixed route and flexible route are preprocessed by segmented Kalman filter and cubic polynomial fitting method respectively. Then the processed track position error is calculated, and Q-Q (Quantile-Quantile) median method is used to test the normal distribution of the error, and k-means clustering is used to obtain the clustering center and occurrence frequency of positioning error and flight error. Finally, a collision risk model based on Bayesian network is established, and the error distribution parameters and occurrence frequency are brought into the model to evaluate the collision risk of parallel routes in the ocean area. The results show that the lateral collision risk based on space-based ADS-B ocean flight data is lower than 0.5 × 10⁻⁸ times/hour specified by ICAO when the fixed route separation is 14n miles and the flexible route separation is 49n miles. And the actual lateral interval of the Pacific flexible route is 50n miles (Jiang, 2010), which meets the safety target level.

为了确保平行路线在海域中的安全运行，有必要评估路线横向碰撞的风险。评估中使用的数据通常来自实际飞行，而传统的陆基ADS-B设备的覆盖范围有限，不能用于研究。天基ADS-B系统可以接收和发送飞机在海域上的飞行位置。本文首先提取了空基ADS-B数据中的海洋轨迹。根据不同的路径结构，分别采用分段卡尔曼滤波和三次多项式拟合的方法对固定路径和柔性路径的数据进行预处理。然后计算处理后的磁道位置误差，并使用QQ（分位数-分位数）中位数方法测试误差的正态分布，利用k均值聚类得到聚类中心，定位误差和飞行误差的发生频率。最后，建立了基于贝叶斯网络的碰撞风险模型，并将误差分布参数和出现频率引入模型中，以评估海域平行路线的碰撞风险。结果表明，基于空基ADS-B海洋飞行数据的横向碰撞风险小于0.5×10当固定航线间隔为14n英里，灵活航线间隔为49n英里时，ICAO规定的^-8次/小时。太平洋柔性航线的实际横向间隔为50n英里（Jiang，2010年），符合安全目标水平。