How environmental factors influence population dynamics in long-distance migrants is complicated by the spatiotemporal diversity of the environment the individuals experience during the annual cycle. The effects of weather on several different aspects of life history have been well studied, but a better understanding is needed on how weather affects population dynamics through the different associated traits. We utilise 77 years of data from pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), to identify the most relevant climate signals associated with population growth rate. The strongest signals on population growth were observed from climate during periods when the birds were not present in the focal location. The population decline was associated with increasing precipitation in the African non-breeding quarters in the autumn (near the arrival of migrants) and with increasing winter temperature along the migration route (before migration). The number of fledglings was associated positively with increasing winter temperature in non-breeding area and negatively with increasing winter temperature in Europe. These possible carry-over effects did not arise via timing of breeding or clutch size but the exact mechanism remains to be revealed in future studies. High population density and low fledgling production were the intrinsic factors reducing the breeding population. We conclude that weather during all seasons has the potential to affect the reproductive success or population growth rate of this species. Our results show how weather can influence the population dynamics of a migratory species through multiple pathways, even at times of the annual cycle when the birds are in a different location than the climate signal.

环境因素如何影响长途移民的人口动态，由于个人在年度周期中所经历的环境的时空多样性而变得复杂。天气对生命史的几个不同方面的影响已经得到很好的研究，但需要更好地了解天气如何通过不同的相关特征影响人口动态。我们利用来自 pied flycatcher ( Ficedula hypoleuca ) 的 77 年数据)，以确定与人口增长率相关的最相关的气候信号。在鸟类不出现在焦点位置期间，从气候中观察到了最强的种群增长信号。人口下降与秋季非洲非繁殖区的降水增加（接近移民到达）和沿迁徙路线（迁徙前）的冬季气温升高有关。雏鸟数量与非繁殖区冬季气温升高呈正相关，与欧洲冬季气温升高呈负相关。这些可能的遗留效应不是通过育种时间或离合器大小产生的，但确切的机制仍有待在未来的研究中揭示。种群密度高、雏鸟产量低是减少繁殖种群的内在因素。我们得出结论，所有季节的天气都有可能影响该物种的繁殖成功或种群增长率。我们的研究结果表明，天气如何通过多种途径影响迁徙物种的种群动态，即使在鸟类位于与气候信号不同的位置时也是如此。