Climate change projections for the 21st century indicate an increase in the already high number of food-insecure people in India. While considerable research on vulnerability to climate change exists, research about Indian smallholder farming systems as a whole, encompassing farming strategies and development pathways in this context, is limited. Hence, the current study examines the vulnerability of three smallholder farming systems, namely, (i) crop without livestock (CWL), (ii) crop with small ruminants (CSR), and (iii) crop with dairy (CD), in the context of climate change in Telangana, India. A mixed methods approach was used to conduct the research with a sample size of ten households per farming system. We found that households of different farming systems faced differential vulnerability due to variation in perceptions of climate change exposures, access to livelihood capitals, and the farming strategies they chose. The CWL households were highly vulnerable to increased maximum temperature and erratic rainfall, while households that farmed both crop and livestock were more vulnerable to overall reduction in precipitation. Decision-making related to farming strategies was a complex process involving several factors, of which the availability of livelihood capitals, provided by government programs, was the foremost. Due to this, households of the different farming systems pursued divergent farming strategies, leading to varying types of adaptation and climate change resilience. Among the three farming systems, the households in the CWL system had the least access to all livelihood capitals and showed the highest vulnerability as their farm strategies only helped to cope with immediate needs. The households in the CD system had access to all critical livelihood capitals, which facilitated opting for sustainable farming strategies. However, as these households were highly dependent on scarce ground water resources for production, their strategies helped only short-term adaption. The households in the CSR system, despite having access to limited capitals, adopted long-term adaptation strategies which is attributed to them being a pastoral ethnic group. Lastly, despite the existence of an integrated climate change policy, state-level development programs continue to focus more on agricultural intensification than on climate change adaptation. This stimulates farming strategies that are lucrative in the short term but endanger farming system resilience to climate change in the long term. We therefore recommend policy makers to give high priority to climate smart development in state development programs, and science-based evaluations of these programs to enable proper climate change adaptation in dryland regions that is inclusive of perspectives of different populations.

对21世纪的气候变化预测表明，印度本来已经不存在粮食安全的人数增加了。尽管存在大量关于应对气候变化脆弱性的研究，但有关印度小农耕作制度作为一个整体的研究是有限的，其中包括在此背景下的耕作策略和发展途径。因此，本研究考察了三种小农耕作制度的脆弱性，即（i）无牲畜的农作物（CWL），（ii）有小反刍动物的农作物（CSR）和（iii）有奶牛的农作物（CD）。印度特兰加纳邦气候变化的背景。使用混合方法进行研究，每个农业系统的样本量为10户。我们发现，由于对气候变化的认识，生计资本的获得以及他们选择的耕作策略的差异，不同耕作制度的家庭面临着不同的脆弱性。CWL家庭极易受到最高温度升高和降雨不规律的影响，而同时种植农作物和牲畜的家庭则更容易受到整体降水减少的影响。与农业战略有关的决策是一个复杂的过程，涉及多个因素，其中最重要的是政府计划提供的民生资本。因此，不同农业系统的家庭采用了不同的农业策略，导致了不同类型的适应和气候变化适应力。在这三种耕作制度中，CWL系统中的家庭使用所有生计之乡的机会最少，并且脆弱性最高，因为他们的农场策略只能帮助解决眼前的需求。CD系统中的家庭可以使用所有重要的生计之都，这有助于选择可持续的农业策略。但是，由于这些家庭高度依赖稀缺的地下水进行生产，因此他们的策略仅有助于短期适应。企业社会责任体系中的家庭尽管获得了有限的资金，却采取了长期的适应策略，这归因于他们是牧民。最后，尽管存在综合的气候变化政策，但州一级的发展计划继续将重点更多地放在农业集约上，而不是气候变化适应上。这刺激了短期内有利可图的农业战略，但长期而言却危及农业系统对气候变化的适应力。因此，我们建议政策制定者在国家发展计划中高度重视气候智能发展，并对这些计划进行基于科学的评估，以使旱地地区能够适当地适应气候变化，包括不同人群的观点。