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Winds, waves, warm waters, weekdays, and which ways boats are counted influence predicted visitor use at an offshore fishing destination
Fisheries Research ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2021.105879
Matthew S. Kendall , Bethany L. Williams , Arliss J. Winship , Mark Carson , Karen Grissom , Timothy J. Rowell , Jenni Stanley , Kimberly W. Roberson

Quantifying the number of recreational fishers is important for many aspects of managing coastal resources. Unfortunately, quantifying recreational boaters in offshore settings has proven difficult due to their distance from shore and a lack of cost-effective methods to monitor small boats (<10 m length). We investigated visitor-use at an offshore marine protected area (MPA) in the southeastern USA. We used multiple methods of counting boats (satellites, buoy camera, passive acoustics, and boat-based observations) and a generalized linear modeling approach to identify environmental and calendar-based predictor variables that influenced visitation. Based on the model, predicted visitor-encounter rates were estimated for various weather and calendar-based scenarios, and the probability of detecting a hypothetical change in visitation with each counting method was examined through a power analysis. The most important predictors were day of the week, special day (e.g., tournament), water temperature, and wave height. Boat counts were 2–5 times higher on weekend days than on weekdays. More boats were predicted on weekdays with good weather (defined as water temperature 24 °C, wave height 0.5 m), than weekends with decent weather (17 °C and 1 m). Considering weekends alone, those with good weather were predicted to have 5 times higher visitation than weekends with decent weather. Predicted visitation was highest on calm days, dropped by ∼75 % when wave height reached 1 m, and was essentially zero when wave height exceeded 1.5 m. Highest counts were predicted when water temperature was warmest and gradually declined as temperatures cooled. For the buoy camera and passive acoustic boat-count methods, power analysis suggested that 3–6 years of typical samples before and after a hypothetical 25 % increase in visitation would be needed to have an 80 % chance of detecting the change. Other techniques would take 14 or more years of typical samples. The process used here for investigating visitation can be adapted to other offshore or remote locations.



中文翻译:

风,浪,温暖的水域,工作日以及计算船只的方式会影响预计在远洋捕鱼目的地的访客使用

量化休闲渔民的数量对于管理沿海资源的许多方面都很重要。不幸的是,由于距海岸的距离以及缺乏用于监视小船(长度小于10 m)的经济有效的方法,事实证明,很难量化近海游船。我们调查了美国东南部海洋保护区(MPA)的访客使用情况。我们使用多种计数船的方法(卫星,浮标相机,无源声学和基于船的观测值)和广义线性建模方法来识别影响访问的环境和基于日历的预测变量。根据该模型,可以估算出各种天气和基于日历的情景下的预计访客遇到率,并通过功效分析检查了每种计数方法检测到的访问量假想变化的可能性。最重要的预测指标是星期几,特殊日子(例如比赛),水温和海浪高度。周末的乘船计数是工作日的2-3倍。预计平日天气良好(定义为水温24°C,浪高0.5 m)的船数要多于周末(17°C和1 m)。仅考虑周末,预计天气好的人的访问量是天气好的周末的5倍。在平静的日子里,预计的访问量最高,当波高达到1 m时,访问量下降约75%,而当波高超过1.5 m时,访问量基本上为零。预计最高温度是水温最高时,随着温度降低逐渐下降。对于浮标相机和无源声学乘船计数法,功率分析表明,假设访问量增加25%(假设增加25%)之前和之后的3–6年的典型样本,才有80%的机会检测到变化。其他技术将花费14年或更长时间的典型样本。此处用于调查访问的过程可以适用于其他离岸或偏远地区。其他技术将需要14年或更长时间的典型样本。此处用于调查访问的过程可以适用于其他离岸或偏远地区。其他技术将需要14年或更长时间的典型样本。此处用于调查访问的过程可以适用于其他离岸或偏远地区。

更新日期:2021-01-18
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