In light of a national policy aiming at satisfying a growing demand for electricity, while achieving a greater diversification of power generation technologies and full electrification by 2050, this research models and contrasts alternative electrification pathways for Tanzania in the time frame 2015–2040. The study relies on an improved model grounded on the OSeMOSYS framework. GIS data are used both to determine the electricity demand projections and to inform the decision about the optimal production technologies made by OSeMOSYS with a least-cost criterion. Findings indicate that the stated policy goals (New Policy scenario) are within reach, but they also imply an increase in installed capacity from less than 2 GW to at least 13.8 GW, corresponding to an investment of 25.3 billion USD, which is significantly above historical spending in the power sector. Also, only an additional environmental policy (450TZ scenario) would ensure that the carbon intensity of the power sector lowers from a current 440 gCO₂/kWh to around 100 gCO₂/kWh in 2040, with the additional benefit of a lower average cost of providing electricity (compared to the New Policy scenario). An Energy For All scenario where universal access is achieved two decades earlier (in 2030) is also feasible but implies more difficulties in lowering carbon intensity or the cost of providing electricity. Results for universal access are the object of a separate in-depth discussion and a sensitivity analysis looks at the effect of key assumption (e.g., on demand projections and discount rate) on the main results.

鉴于旨在满足不断增长的电力需求的国家政策，同时到2050年实现更大程度的发电技术多样化和全面电气化，本研究模拟并对比了2015-2040年间坦桑尼亚的替代电气化途径。该研究依赖于基于OSeMOSYS框架的改进模型。GIS数据既可用于确定电力需求预测，也可用于告知OSeMOSYS以最低成本标准做出的最佳生产技术的决策。调查结果表明，既定的政策目标（新政策方案）可以实现，但也意味着装机容量将从不到2吉瓦增加到至少13.8吉瓦，相当于投资253亿美元，这大大超过了电力行业的历史支出。此外，只有采取其他环境政策（450TZ情景），才能确保电力部门的碳强度从目前的440 gCO降低₂ / kWh到2040年将达到100 gCO ₂ / kWh左右，额外的好处是平均供电成本更低（与新政策方案相比）。在二十年前（2030年）实现普遍接入的“人人享有能源”方案也是可行的，但在降低碳强度或供电成本方面存在更多困难。普遍获取的结果是一个单独的深入讨论的对象，敏感性分析着眼于主要假设（例如，对需求预测和折现率）对主要结果的影响。