The accelerated global warming and heterogeneous change in precipitation have been resulting in climate system shifts, which plays a key role in the stability of ecosystem and social economic development. Central Asia is account 80% of the temperate desert, characterized by fragile ecosystem; however, it has experienced the fastest warming in recent decades and projected warming in future. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is a useful tool to assess the potential impacts of climate change on regional ecosystem. The spatial shift and temporal evolution of each climatic zone based on Köppen-Geiger climate classification are analyzed in historical and future period under different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), high risk regions that might experience more frequent climatic zone shifts are delimited in this study, which could provide the useful information for developing mitigate strategies in coping with the warming threat. The hotter and dryer subtypes of arid climatic zone and warmer subtypes of temperate climatic zone expanded their coverage in Central Asia, corresponding to the tundra climatic, cooler subtype of arid and temperate climatic zone contracted. Based on a method defining the climate-sensitivity, high risk regions are mainly distributed in northern Kazakhstan and Tianshan Mountains region.

中文翻译：

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使用柯本气候分类法评估1980年至2100年中亚的气候变化

全球变暖的加速和降水的非均质性变化已导致气候系统的变化，这在生态系统和社会经济发展的稳定中起着关键作用。中亚占温带沙漠的80％，其生态系统脆弱；然而，它近几十年来经历了最快的变暖，并预计未来会变暖。Köppen-Geiger气候分类是评估气候变化对区域生态系统潜在影响的有用工具。在不同情景下（RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8.5），在高风险地区，可能经历更频繁的气候变化，在历史和未来时期分析了基于柯本气候分类法的每个气候带的空间变化和时间演变。在这项研究中划定了区域偏移，这可以为制定缓解策略以应对变暖威胁提供有用的信息。干旱气候带的干热亚型和温带气候带的较暖亚型扩大了它们在中亚的覆盖范围，这与干旱和温带气候带的冻原气候，较冷的亚型相对应。根据确定气候敏感性的方法，高风险地区主要分布在哈萨克斯坦北部和天山地区。