We present a new multi‐sector growth model that features nonhomothetic, constant elasticity of substitution preferences, and accommodates long‐run demand and supply drivers of structural change for an arbitrary number of sectors. The model is consistent with the decline in agriculture, the hump‐shaped evolution of manufacturing, and the rise of services over time. We estimate the demand system derived from the model using household‐level data from the United States and India, as well as historical aggregate‐level panel data for 39 countries during the postwar period. The estimated model parsimoniously accounts for the broad patterns of sectoral reallocation observed among rich, miracle, and developing economies. Our estimates support the presence of strong nonhomotheticity across time, income levels, and countries. We find that income effects account for the bulk of the within‐country evolution of sectoral reallocation.

中文翻译：

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具有长期收入和价格效应的结构变化

我们提出了一种新的多部门增长模型，该模型具有非同质，替代偏好具有恒定弹性的特点，并能适应任意数量部门的长期需求和结构变化的驱动因素。该模型与农业的衰落，制造业的驼峰状演变以及服务业随着时间的推移而增长一致。我们使用来自美国和印度的家庭水平数据以及战后39个国家的历史总体水平面板数据来估计从该模型得出的需求系统。估计模型简约地解释了在富裕，奇迹和发展中经济体中观察到的广泛的部门再分配模式。我们的估计支持跨时间，收入水平和国家/地区存在强烈的非均一性。