An important goal of empirical demand analysis is choice and welfare prediction on counterfactual budget sets arising from potential policy interventions. Such predictions are more credible when made without arbitrary functional‐form/distributional assumptions, and instead based solely on economic rationality, that is, that choice is consistent with utility maximization by a heterogeneous population. This paper investigates nonparametric economic rationality in the empirically important context of binary choice. We show that under general unobserved heterogeneity, economic rationality is equivalent to a pair of Slutsky‐like shape restrictions on choice‐probability functions. The forms of these restrictions differ from Slutsky inequalities for continuous goods. Unlike McFadden–Richter's stochastic revealed preference, our shape restrictions (a) are global, that is, their forms do not depend on which and how many budget sets are observed, (b) are closed form, hence easy to impose on parametric/semi/nonparametric models in practical applications, and (c) provide computationally simple, theory‐consistent bounds on demand and welfare predictions on counterfactual budge sets.

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二元选择模型的经验内容

经验需求分析的一个重要目标是对因潜在政策干预而产生的反事实预算集的选择和福利预测。如果没有任意的功能形式/分布假设，而仅基于经济合理性做出这样的预测，则这种预测更为可信，也就是说，该选择与异质人口的效用最大化相一致。本文研究在二元选择的经验重要背景下的非参数经济合理性。我们证明，在一般不可观测的异质性下，经济合理性等同于对选择概率函数的一对类似于Slutsky的形状限制。这些限制的形式不同于连续商品的Slutsky不等式。不像麦克法登-里希特（McFadden-Richter）的随机偏好