This study aims to explore how common new product failure is in consumer packaged goods (CPG) categories and investigate the conditions in which the new product failure rate varies. This study analyzes 83,719 new stock-keeping units (SKUs), which were introduced over 8 years (2002–2009) across 31 CPG categories in the USA. Failure is the permanent cessation of sales, which is measured in consumer panel data. We find that one in four (25%) new SKUs are no longer bought 1 year later—a rate that increases to approximately 40% 2 years post-launch. New SKU failure was more likely for new launches that were introduced into higher revenue categories and by smaller share parent brands. Our findings can be used as a resource to aid marketing practitioners’ understanding regarding how common failure is for new CPGs and when there is greater associated risk.

这项研究旨在探讨在消费者包装商品（CPG）类别中常见的新产品故障​​情况，并调查新产品故障​​率变化的条件。这项研究分析了83,719个新的库存单位（SKU），这些单位在8年中（2002-2009年）在美国31个CPG类别中推出。失败是销售的永久停止，这可以通过消费者面板数据来衡量。我们发现，四分之一（25％）的新SKU在一年后就不再购买了-启动后2年的比率增加到大约40％。新推出的SKU出现故障的可能性更大，这些新推出的商品会被收入更高的类别和份额较小的母品牌引入。我们的发现可作为一种资源，帮助市场营销从业人员了解新CPG常见故障的发生率以及相关风险更大的情况。