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From perception to inference: Utilization of probabilities as decision weights in children
Memory & Cognition ( IF 2.482 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 , DOI: 10.3758/s13421-020-01127-0
Tilmann Betsch 1 , Stefanie Lindow 1 , Anne Lehmann 1 , Rachel Stenmans 1
Affiliation  

In a probabilistic inference task (three probabilistic cues predict outcomes for two options), we examined decisions from 233 children (5–6 vs. 9–10 years). Contiguity (low vs. high; i.e., position of probabilistic information far vs. close to options) and demand for selectivity (low vs. high; i.e., showing predictions of desired vs. desired and undesired outcomes) were varied as configural aspects of the presentation format. Probability utilization was measured by the frequency of following the predictions of the highest validity cue in choice. High contiguity and low demand for selectivity strongly and moderately increased probability utilization, respectively. Children are influenced by presentation format when using probabilities as decision weights. They benefit from perception-like presentations that present probabilities and options as compounds.



中文翻译:

从感知到推理:利用概率作为儿童决策权重

在概率推理任务(三个概率线索预测两个选项的结果)中,我们检查了 233 名儿童(5-6 岁与 9-10 岁)的决定。连续性(低与高;即概率信息的位置远与接近选项)和对选择性的需求(低与高;即,显示对期望与期望和不期望结果的预测)随着配置方面的变化而变化演示文稿格式。概率利用率是通过遵循选择的最高有效性线索的预测的频率来衡量的。高连续性和对选择性的低需求分别强烈和适度增加了概率利用率。当使用概率作为决策权重时,儿童会受到演示格式的影响。

更新日期:2021-01-16
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