COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black−White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

据美国疾病控制与预防中心称，COVID-19 在美国造成的死亡人数惊人：截至 2020 年 10 月中旬，死亡人数已超过 215,000 人。黑人和拉丁裔美国人承受着不成比例的 COVID-19 发病率和死亡率负担，反映出持续存在的结构性不平等，增加了感染者接触 COVID-19 的风险和死亡风险。我们使用四种死亡情景（一种是未发生 COVID-19 大流行的情景，另一种包括了 COVID-19 死亡率预测），估算了 2020 年美国总人口的出生时和 65 岁预期寿命，并按种族和民族划分。由健康指标与评估研究所制作。我们的中期估计表明，美国出生时预期寿命将减少 1.13 岁，降至 77.48 岁，低于 2003 年以来的任何一年。我们还预计 65 岁时预期寿命将减少 0.87 岁。据估计，黑人和拉丁裔人口的出生时预期寿命将分别下降 2.10 岁和 3.05 岁，都是白人 0.68 岁的数倍。这些预测意味着黑人和白人的预期寿命差距增加了近 40%，从 3.6 岁增加到 5 岁以上，从而消除了自 2006 年以来在缩小这一差距方面取得的进展。拉丁美洲人的死亡率一直低于白人（这一现象被称为拉丁裔或西班牙裔悖论），他们超过 3 年的生存优势将减少到不到 1 年。