We analyze the lead time syndrome ($LTS$), which describes a positive feedback loop between lead time updating and increasing order quantities. While previous studies have focused on theoretical analysis and anecdotal evidence, we examine the impact of human decision making with the help of controlled laboratory studies using a novel experimental design of a simple two tier supply chain. We show that the theoretically postulated phenomenon of the $LTS$ can be reproduced in the lab including human decision makers. We find that the dynamic (load dependent) lead time in the supply chain serves as coordination mechanism among retailers, i.e. experimental participants, but that this mechanism can be distorted by less reliable lead times. Comparing the experimental results to an optimization model in a rolling horizon setting, we further argue that human behavior initiates the vicious cycle of the $LTS$ in our experiments. Finally, we find individual-level evidence for behavioral decision-making, in particular hedging behavior, in our experiment, due to various forms of uncertainty. We discuss the implications of these results in the light of supply chain and production planning systems.

我们分析了前置时间综合症（$\mathrm{大号}Ť\mathrm{小号}$），它描述了提前期更新和订单数量增加之间的正反馈回路。虽然先前的研究集中在理论分析和轶事证据上，但我们在受控实验室研究的帮助下，使用简单的两层供应链的新颖实验设计，研究了人类决策制定的影响。我们证明了理论上假设的$\mathrm{大号}Ť\mathrm{小号}$可以在包括人类决策者在内的实验室中复制。我们发现，供应链中的动态（取决于负载）提前期可以充当零售商（即实验参与者）之间的协调机制，但是这种机制会因可靠性较低的提前期而失真。将实验结果与滚动环境下的优化模型进行比较，我们进一步认为，人类行为会引发人类行为的恶性循环。$\mathrm{大号}Ť\mathrm{小号}$在我们的实验中。最后，由于各种形式的不确定性，我们在实验中找到了个人行为决策的证据，尤其是套期保值行为。我们将根据供应链和生产计划系统讨论这些结果的含义。