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Adaptive time series prediction and recommendation
Information Processing & Management ( IF 8.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ipm.2021.102494
Yang Wang , Lixin Han

The ubiquity of user-item interactions makes it essential and challenging to utilize the rich variety of hidden structural and temporal information for effective and efficient recommendation. In this work, our goal is to address the limitations of existing research: (i) inadequacy of popularity trend prediction and temporal recommendation (ii) failure to clarify the influence and mechanism of structural characteristics and the temporal evolution on recommendation. To this end, we first construct time sequences of grown popularity of items. Then we propose a family of time-series predictive models to predict the growing trend of popularity. Furthermore, we exploit the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno quasi-Newton optimization algorithm (BFGS) to adjust the predictive parameters adaptively. Moreover, to investigate the influence and interaction mechanism of structural and temporal information on recommendation, we propose a novel Hybrid Network Adaptive Time Series recommendation framework (HNATS), which improves synchronously the recommendation performance. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on four real-world datasets of different sizes and time spans. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed predictive models can capture the hidden temporal patterns and the HNATS method surpasses those compared state-of-the-art temporal ones, including the popularity-based, the time decay-based, and the Markov-based baselines.



中文翻译:

自适应时间序列预测和推荐

用户项交互的普遍性使得利用丰富的隐藏结构和时间信息进行有效而高效的推荐变得至关重要且具有挑战性。在这项工作中,我们的目标是解决现有研究的局限性:(i)流行趋势预测和时间推荐不足;(ii)无法弄清结构特征和时间演变对推荐的影响和机理。为此,我们首先构建项目受欢迎程度的时间序列。然后,我们提出了一系列时间序列预测模型来预测流行度的增长趋势。此外,我们利用Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno拟牛顿优化算法(BFGS)自适应地调整预测参数。此外,为了研究结构和时间信息对推荐的影响和相互作用机制,我们提出了一种新颖的混合网络自适应时间序列推荐框架(HNATS),该框架可以同时提高推荐性能。最后,我们对四个不同大小和时间跨度的真实世界数据集进行了全面的实验。实验结果表明,我们提出的预测模型可以捕获隐藏的时间模式,并且HNATS方法优于那些比较的最新时间模式,包括基于流行度,基于时间衰减和基于马尔可夫的基线。同步提高了推荐性能。最后,我们对四个不同大小和时间跨度的真实世界数据集进行了全面的实验。实验结果表明,我们提出的预测模型可以捕获隐藏的时间模式,并且HNATS方法优于那些比较的最新时间模式,包括基于流行度,基于时间衰减和基于马尔可夫的基线。同步提高了推荐性能。最后,我们对四个不同大小和时间跨度的真实世界数据集进行了全面的实验。实验结果表明,我们提出的预测模型可以捕获隐藏的时间模式,并且HNATS方法优于那些比较的最新时间模式,包括基于流行度,基于时间衰减和基于马尔可夫的基线。

更新日期:2021-01-16
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