Agricultural Systems ( IF 6.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103052 Sabine Egerer , Rodrigo Valencia Cotera , Louis Celliers , María Máñez Costa
Context
Participatory modeling approaches provide opportunities for collective action responding to challenges of community resource limitations. In the context of climate change, challenges arise from the potential limitations of water availability and resulting conflicts within the agricultural sector. Northeast Lower Saxony is the region with the highest irrigation intensity in Germany due to the sandy soils with low water holding capacity, the cultivation of crops with high water demand, and a negative climatic water balance during the summer months. Water resources will become more limited as a consequence of climate change. Simultaneously, the irrigation demand will most likely increase due to intensified crop cultivation.
Objective
Responding to these challenges, we developed a novel method to identify leverage points for effective climate change adaptation measures. We applied this method to analyze opportunities for climate change adaptation within the agricultural sector in Northeast Lower Saxony. Furthermore, we assessed the potential of stakeholders to implement adaptation measures that correspond to the identified leverage points on different time scales.
Methods
Our leverage point analysis is based on a qualitative system dynamics model that was developed within a participatory modeling framework. We analyzed parameters, feedback loops, and typical system archetypes within the model. Leverage points that were related to the design and the intent of the model emerged during the iterative model building process. Subsequently, we introduced a rating system to evaluate the potential of each leverage point to be successful as a climate change adaptation measure. We provide a point-by-point analysis of the potential of key stakeholders to implement adaptation measures.
Results and conclusions
The leverage points analysis was applied to the case study of Northeast Lower Saxony. It revealed that collective action is needed to cope with these challenges. Decision-makers should provide financial incentives to increase water retention in the region. Farmers will have to improve irrigation efficiency and technology for crop production. Increased societal awareness of climate change-related water shortages has the potential to direct the system towards more sustainable water use and consumption patterns.
Significance
Our novel and structured approach is an attempt to analyze complex socio-economic systems. It supports mediating water resource conflicts between various stakeholders to facilitate collective action for adaptive planning.
中文翻译:
农业气候变化适应性的定性系统动力学模型的杠杆点分析
语境
参与式建模方法为应对社区资源有限的挑战提供了采取集体行动的机会。在气候变化的背景下,挑战来自供水的潜在局限性以及由此引起的农业部门内部的冲突。下萨克森州东北部是德国灌溉强度最高的地区,原因是沙土土壤的持水量低,需水量高的农作物的种植以及夏季的负水平衡。由于气候变化,水资源将变得更加有限。同时,由于集约化耕种,灌溉需求很可能会增加。
目的
为应对这些挑战,我们开发了一种新颖的方法来确定有效的气候变化适应措施的杠杆点。我们应用此方法来分析下萨克森州东北部农业部门适应气候变化的机会。此外,我们评估了利益相关者实施适应措施的潜力,这些措施与在不同时间范围内确定的杠杆点相对应。
方法
我们的杠杆点分析基于在参与式建模框架内开发的定性系统动力学模型。我们分析了模型中的参数,反馈回路和典型的系统原型。在迭代模型构建过程中出现了与设计和模型意图相关的杠杆点。随后,我们引入了一个评级系统,以评估每个杠杆点作为气候变化适应措施而成功的潜力。我们对主要利益相关者实施适应措施的潜力进行逐点分析。
结果与结论
杠杆点分析应用于东北下萨克森州的案例研究。它表明需要采取集体行动应对这些挑战。决策者应提供财政激励措施,以增加该地区的保水能力。农民将不得不提高灌溉效率和作物生产技术。社会上对与气候变化有关的水短缺的认识不断提高,有可能使该系统朝着更可持续的用水和消费方式发展。
意义
我们新颖而结构化的方法是尝试分析复杂的社会经济系统。它支持调解各种利益相关者之间的水资源冲突,以促进针对适应性计划的集体行动。