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A New Approach for Occupational Risk Evaluation of Natural Gas Pipeline Construction with Extended Cumulative Prospect Theory
International Journal of Fuzzy Systems ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 , DOI: 10.1007/s40815-020-01038-x
Weizhong Wang , Xinwang Liu , Yilin Ma , Shuli Liu

The natural gas pipeline construction project possesses different kinds of highly risky occupational hazards because of its complex and dynamic surrounding environments. Occupational risk evaluation is one of the most effective techniques to reduce and manage these risks and hazards. There are various kinds of techniques to address the problem of occupational risk evaluation, however, most of these techniques overlook the decision-makers’ different risk perceptions under the different probability of risk occurrence. In addition, current occupational risk evaluation approaches are unable to cope with the risk analysis problem including correlated risk parameters within the random and fuzzy context. Aiming to compensate for these limitations, we present an extended occupational risk evaluation method for a natural gas pipeline construction project by integrating the cloud model, cumulative prospect theory, and Bonferroni mean operator. In this framework, four risk parameters in the safety and critical effect analysis (SCEA) are introduced to rate the risk of each occupational hazard. Then, the normal cloud model is utilized to transform the linguistic risk evaluation information into quantitative data, which can model the uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness in the risk evaluation process. Next, the extended cumulative prospect theory based on Bonferroni mean operator is constructed to derive the risk magnitude of each hazard considering the decision maker’s different risk perception and interactions among risk parameters. Finally, the proposed extended occupational risk evaluation method is tested by the risk evaluation of the concrete coating procedure. The sensitivity and comparison analyses are led to validate the rationality and reliability of the proposed occupational risk evaluation method.



中文翻译:

扩展累积前景理论的天然气管道建设职业风险评估新方法

天然气管道建设项目由于其复杂而动态的周围环境而具有多种高风险的职业危害。职业风险评估是减少和管理这些风险和危害的最有效技术之一。解决职业风险评估问题的技术多种多样,但是,在风险发生概率不同的情况下,这些技术大多数都忽略了决策者的不同风险感知。此外,当前的职业风险评估方法无法应对风险分析问题,包括随机和模糊环境下的相关风险参数。为了弥补这些限制,通过整合云模型,累积前景理论和Bonferroni均值算子,我们为天然气管道建设项目提供了扩展的职业风险评估方法。在此框架中,在安全性和关键影响分析(SCEA)中引入了四个风险参数,以评估每种职业危害的风险。然后,利用正常的云模型将语言风险评估信息转换为定量数据,从而可以对风险评估过程中的随机性和模糊性不确定性进行建模。接下来,基于决策者的不同风险感知以及风险参数之间的相互作用,构造了基于Bonferroni平均算子的扩展累积前景理论,以推导每种危害的风险大小。最后,提出的扩展职业风险评估方法是通过对混凝土涂层过程的风险评估进行测试的。通过敏感性分析和比较分析,验证了所提出的职业风险评估方法的合理性和可靠性。

更新日期:2021-01-15
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