The Southern Ocean supports ecosystem services that are important on a global scale. Climate change and human activities (tourism, fishing, and research) will affect both the demand for, and the provision of, these services into the future. Here we synthesize recent assessments of the current status and expected future climate-driven changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems and evaluate the potential consequences of these changes for the provision of ecosystem services. We explore in detail three key services (the ‘blue carbon’ pathway, the Antarctic krill fishery, and Antarctic tourism), tracing the consequences of climate change from physical drivers through biological impacts to the benefits to humans. We consider potential non-climatic drivers of change, current and future demands for the services, and the main global and regional policy frameworks that could be used to manage risks to the provision of these services in a changing climate. We also develop a formal representation of the network of interactions between the suite of potential drivers and the suite of services, providing a framework to capture the complexity of this network and its embedded feedback loops. Increased consideration of the linkages and feedbacks between drivers and ecosystem services will be required to underpin robust management responses into the future.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下南大洋生态系统服务的未来风险

南大洋支持在全球范围内具有重要意义的生态系统服务。气候变化和人类活动（旅游、渔业和研究）将影响未来对这些服务的需求和提供。在这里，我们综合了对南大洋生态系统当前状况和预期未来气候驱动变化的最新评估，并评估了这些变化对生态系统服务提供的潜在后果。我们详细探索了三个关键服务（“蓝碳”途径、南极磷虾渔业和南极旅游），追踪气候变化的后果，从物理驱动因素到生物影响再到对人类的好处。我们考虑潜在的非气候变化驱动因素、当前和未来对服务的需求，以及可用于管理在不断变化的气候中提供这些服务的风险的主要全球和区域政策框架。我们还开发了潜在驱动程序套件和服务套件之间交互网络的正式表示，提供了一个框架来捕获该网络及其嵌入式反馈循环的复杂性。需要更多地考虑驱动因素和生态系统服务之间的联系和反馈，以支持未来强有力的管理反应。提供一个框架来捕捉该网络及其嵌入式反馈循环的复杂性。需要更多地考虑驱动因素和生态系统服务之间的联系和反馈，以支持未来强有力的管理反应。提供一个框架来捕捉该网络及其嵌入式反馈循环的复杂性。需要更多地考虑驱动因素和生态系统服务之间的联系和反馈，以支持未来强有力的管理反应。