The problem of setting prices for construction works is significant for both the investor and contractor companies. The periodically occurring instabilities in the economy require investment process participants to perform detailed market analyses and assessments, as well as to monitor price forecasts in construction. It is only after such an assessment that it is possible within the framework of the initial assumptions for cost calculation to select the basis for setting prices and their levels. The identification and analysis of the risks related to uncontrolled price increases allow contractors to secure their businesses by developing bids that ensure maximum profit. In view of the above, this study proposes an approach based on the use of game theory against nature to identify the optimal variant of a bid estimate. The study considers price forecasts for construction products, which may reduce the negative impact in case the prices increase. The obtained results confirmed the effectiveness of the used decision-making support methods, indicating the optimal strategy to reduce financial losses in times of market instability. The proposed approach also allows for a balance (symmetry) between maximum profit and probability of winning the contract.

中文翻译：

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自然博弈论在建筑工程投标报价支持中的应用

设定建筑工程价格的问题对投资者和承包商公司都非常重要。经济中周期性发生的不稳定性要求投资过程的参与者进行详细的市场分析和评估，并监视建筑中的价格预测。只有经过这样的评估，才有可能在成本计算的初始假设框架内选择确定价格及其水平的依据。对与不受控制的价格上涨相关的风险的识别和分析，使承包商能够通过制定可确保最大利润的投标来确保自己的业务。有鉴于此，本研究提出了一种基于对自然博弈理论的使用方法，以识别出价估算的最佳变体。该研究考虑了建筑产品的价格预测，这可以减少价格上涨时的负面影响。获得的结果证实了所使用的决策支持方法的有效性，表明了在市场不稳定时期减少财务损失的最佳策略。所提出的方法还允许最大利润和赢得合同的可能性之间的平衡（对称）。