ABSTRACT

Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause enormous damage to unprotected coastal areas. Healthy coral reefs can reduce this damage and are low cost and maintenance free. We use a wave simulation model to estimate changes that will occur by 2100 in wave height on a coral reef for a healthy reef and a degraded reef under variable TC wave conditions and sea level rise at Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands, Japan. Moreover, we estimate the potential reef production rate based on analysis of a Holocene reef core, and indicate possible reef restoration and conservation strategies, including a selection of appropriate coral communities for transplantation, if the future reef is degraded. Our findings indicate that the significant wave height at the reef flat will increase from 1.69 m at present to a maximum of 3.00 m for degraded reefs and a maximum of 2.63 m for healthy reefs under intensified TCs by 2100. The value of potential reef production rate required for healthy reefs by 2100 is 3–10 kg CaCO₃/m²/y. If the reef is degraded by global and local impacts, planning for reef restoration and conservation such as direct coral transplantation of Acropora digitifera and Acropora hyacinthus may be considered.

摘要

热带气旋（TC）对未受保护的沿海地区造成巨大破坏。健康的珊瑚礁可以减少这种破坏，而且成本低廉且无需维护。我们使用波浪模拟模型来估算在日本琉球群岛石垣岛的可变TC波条件和海平面上升的情况下，对于健康的珊瑚礁和退化的珊瑚礁，到2100年珊瑚礁的波高将发生变化。此外，我们根据对全新世珊瑚礁核心的分析来估计潜在的珊瑚礁生产率，并指出可能的珊瑚礁修复和保护策略，包括如果未来的珊瑚礁退化则选择合适的珊瑚群落进行移植。我们的研究结果表明，礁滩的显着波高将从目前的1.69 m增加到退化珊瑚礁的最大3.00 m和最大2。₃ / m ² / y。如果珊瑚礁由于全球和局部影响而退化，则可以考虑进行珊瑚礁的恢复和保护计划，例如直接种植珊瑚指藻和风信子。