当前位置: X-MOL 学术J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Modeling drought duration and severity using two-dimensional copula
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-14 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105530
Muhammad Asif Khan , Muhammad Faisal , Muhammad Zaffar Hashmi , Amna Nazeer , Zulfiqar Ali , Ijaz Hussain

Drought is a natural disaster that has terrible effects on society and the natural environment. However, accurate detection and measurement of incoming drought events help policymakers control their severe impact by strengthening drought mitigation policies. In this research, we have assessed the suitability of various Copula's models for modeling drought events using two drought indices, i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index for different meteorological stations of Pakistan. Outcomes associated with this research shows that Gumbel-Hougaard Copula is the most suitable for Bahawalnagar Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Islamabad, Khanpur, Lahore, Murree, Sargodha, and Sialkot stations. Additionally, we have worked on the fitting of various popular probability functions for drought duration and severity. The result indicates that the Gamma distribution is the most suitable for defining drought duration and severity in all the selected stations. Overall, this research's findings provide baseline statistics for policymakers for controlling the effects of future droughts.



中文翻译:

使用二维copula模拟干旱持续时间和严重程度

干旱是一种自然灾害,会对社会和自然环境造成可怕的影响。但是,准确检测和测量即将到来的干旱事件,有助于决策者通过加强缓解干旱政策来控制其严重影响。在这项研究中,我们使用两个干旱指数,即巴基斯坦的不同气象台站的标准降水指数和标准降水温度指数,评估了各种Copula模型对干旱事件建模的适用性。与这项研究相关的结果表明,Gumbel-Hougaard Copula最适合Bahawalnagar Bahawalpur,Faisalabad,Islamabad,Khanpur,Lahore,Murree,Sargodha和Sialkot站。此外,我们还针对干旱持续时间和严重程度对各种流行的概率函数进行了拟合。结果表明,伽马分布最适合定义所有选定站点的干旱持续时间和严重程度。总体而言,这项研究的发现为决策者提供了控制未来干旱影响的基准统计数据。

更新日期:2021-01-22
down
wechat
bug