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Evolution characteristics and displacement forecasting model of landslides with stair-step sliding surface along the Xiangxi River, three Gorges Reservoir region, China
Engineering Geology ( IF 7.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-14 , DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105961
Changdong Li , Robert E. Criss , Zhiyong Fu , Jingjing Long , Qinwen Tan

Five large and many small landslides are developed in Jurassic strata along the lower reaches of Xiangxi River, where interbedded weak and hard bedrock layers foster the development of landslides with a “stair-step” sliding surface. The paper investigates the evolution characteristics of these landslides and presents a novel forecasting model for their displacements. The distribution characteristics and behavior of landslides developed along Xiangxi River is revealed by the database of landslides in the larger Zigui basin, of which this area is part. Most landslides occur at rather low elevations of <300 m and in areas of moderate rainfall. The geological evolution of landslides in the Xiangxi River valley can be divided into four stages, beginning with anticline formation, followed by valley incision, then by weathering and erosion, and culminating in formation of the colluvial landslides. The accumulative displacement curves of landslides with a stair-step sliding surface in Xiangxi River region also present obvious, step-like characteristics. A novel GA-CEEMD-RF algorithm was developed to predict the displacement of these stair-step landslides, which helps to define the combination of induced factors and weak stableness of prediction results using a single displacement prediction model and the multi-field monitoring data.



中文翻译:

三峡库区湘西河阶梯滑移面滑坡演化特征及位移预测模型

湘西河下游侏罗系地层发育了五种大小不同的滑坡,夹杂着软弱和坚硬的基岩层,助长了具有“阶梯式”滑动面的滑坡的发展。本文研究了这些滑坡的演化特征,并提出了一种新的滑坡位移预测模型。Zi溪盆地较大的滑坡数据库显示了湘西河沿岸滑坡的分布特征和行为,该地区是该地区的一部分。大多数滑坡发生在<300 m的相当低的海拔和中等降雨的地区。湘西河流域滑坡的地质演化可分为四个阶段,从背斜形成开始,然后是山谷切开,然后是风化和侵蚀,最终形成了山崩滑坡。湘西河地区具有阶梯状滑动面的滑坡的累积位移曲线也具有明显的阶梯状特征。开发了一种新颖的GA-CEEMD-RF算法来预测这些阶梯状滑坡的位移,这有助于使用单个位移预测模型和多场监测数据来定义诱发因素和预测结果的弱稳定性的组合。

更新日期:2021-01-29
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