By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky’s theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy.

中文翻译：

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使用海曼明斯基金融不稳定理论的数学模型预测美国经济的周期性衰退（衰退）

以美国经济为例，该论文展示了 COVID-19 大流行如何改变其短期动态，导致 2020 年深度危机衰退，而不是预期的 2022 年由通货膨胀引起的短期和浅度衰退。 2008-2009 年金融和经济危机之后信贷扩张期间的金融泡沫。为了预测对美国经济来说很自然的后一种情况，作者首先基于海曼明斯基的金融不稳定理论开发了一个数学模型，该模型可以用于管理不稳定经济中的信贷扩张和收缩过程。